Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#198 Norton (7-2) 112.7

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#42 of 107 in Division III
#17 of 28 in Region 9
Eitel team page
Region 9 projections
Region 9 playoff probabilities
Region 9 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 20-21 A #34 Barberton (9-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 31 (93%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 13-6 H #373 Cuyahoga Falls (1-8 D2 R5), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-7 H #315 Parma Heights Holy Name (4-5 D3 R10), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-10 A #476 Mogadore Field (1-8 D4 R13), pick: W by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 39-21 H #376 Lodi Cloverleaf (4-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 41-7 A #498 Akron Springfield (2-7 D3 R9), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 21-14 A #194 Ravenna (7-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 3 (58%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 33-21 H #320 Streetsboro (4-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 11 (76%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 7-28 A #181 Peninsula Woodridge (5-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #418 Akron Coventry (3-6 D3 R9), pick: W by 18 (87%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#63 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
20.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R9 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-13%, 8W-87%

Playoff chance
16% now
19% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 20.15 (19.50-21.30) 19% in, 0% home, proj. out

Playoff scenarios
87% W 20.15 pts, 19% in (out, range #6-out) Canfield 60%
13% L 17.95 pts, out

Teams to root for
Week 10: Cuyahoga Falls (1-8 D2 R5) over North Royalton (3-6 D2 R6)
Week 10: Alliance Marlington (8-1 D3 R9) over Alliance (6-3 D3 R9)
Week 10: Mount Vernon (3-6 D2 R7) over Millersburg West Holmes (7-2 D3 R9)
Week 10: Macedonia Nordonia (8-1 D2 R5) over Twinsburg (5-4 D2 R5)
Week 10: Parma Heights Valley Forge (6-3 D2 R6) over Bay Village Bay (7-2 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
60% Canfield (8-1)
30% Chagrin Falls Kenston (8-1)
7% Akron East (8-1)
2% Alliance Marlington (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 112.7 (7-2, #198, D3 #42) 16% , proj. out
W8: 116.6 (7-1, #157, D3 #29) 77% (bubble if 8-2), 11% home, proj. #5
W7: 115.6 (6-1, #167, D3 #33) 63% (bubble if 8-2), 7% home, proj. #8
W6: 114.2 (5-1, #181, D3 #37) 25% (need 9-1), 3% home, proj. out
W5: 113.1 (4-1, #193, D3 #41) 21% (need 9-1), 2% home, proj. out
W4: 110.0 (3-1, #224, D3 #46) 12% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 109.8 (2-1, #226, D3 #48) 11% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 102.7 (1-1, #334, D3 #67) 2% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 103.6 (0-1, #310, D3 #68) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 97.6 (0-0, #435, D3 #88) 1% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 94.6 (2-8)