Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#216 Pepper Pike Orange (5-0) 111.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#25 of 106 in Division IV
#7 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 28-7 H #496 Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 35-28 A #339 Streetsboro (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 39-9 H #601 Louisville St Thomas Aquinas (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 29 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 44-8 H #421 Orwell Grand Valley (4-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 12 (75%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 61-26 A #603 Painesville Harvey (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #407 Chagrin Falls (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #348 Geneva (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #107 Perry (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #334 Chesterland West Geauga (1-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #303 Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 5 (60%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#100 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
19.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-5%, 7W-20%, 8W-37%, 9W-31%, 10W-6%

Playoff chance
91% now (need 7-3), 49% home
93% with a win in next game, and 82% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 14.10 (10.85-18.60) 26% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 16.60 (12.35-22.90) 76% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
8W: 19.45 (14.80-25.20) 99% in, 37% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
9W: 22.35 (18.80-27.20) 100% in, 90% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)
10W: 26.30 (23.45-28.95) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
6.3% WWWWW 26.30 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Highland 21%

Worst realistic scenario
4.6% WLLWL 15.55 pts, 59% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) St Marys Memorial 38%

Most likely other scenarios
20% WWLWW 22.00 pts, 100% in, 87% home (#3, range #1-#7) Kenton 25%
13% WWLWL 18.00 pts, 96% in, 10% home (#6, range #3-out) Kenton 22%
7.9% WWLLW 19.95 pts, 99% in, 48% home (#5, range #2-out) Kenton 28%
6.5% WLLWW 19.60 pts, 100% in, 39% home (#5, range #2-#8) Kenton 29%
5.1% WWLLL 15.95 pts, 65% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) St Marys Memorial 33%
4.7% LWLWW 20.55 pts, 100% in, 58% home (#4, range #2-#8) Kenton 25%
(32% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Streetsboro (2-3 D4 R13) over Akron Coventry (3-2 D3 R9)
Week 10: Streetsboro (2-3 D4 R13) over Lodi Cloverleaf (2-3 D3 R9)
Week 7: Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10) over Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1)
Week 7: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Huron (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 10: Orwell Grand Valley (4-1 D5 R17) over Conneaut (3-2 D4 R13)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
21% Kenton (3-2)
16% Huron (4-1)
14% Marengo Highland (4-1)
10% Milan Edison (3-1)
9% St Marys Memorial (5-0)

Championship probabilities
1.9% Region 14 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 113.1 (4-0, #189, D4 #18) 92% (need 7-3), 55% home, proj. #4
W3: 110.3 (3-0, #219, D4 #25) 81% (need 7-3), 39% home, proj. #4
W2: 108.5 (2-0, #243, D4 #30) 74% (need 7-3), 32% home, proj. #5
W1: 109.3 (1-0, #233, D4 #30) 77% (bubble if 6-4), 40% home, proj. #5
W0: 108.0 (0-0, #272, D4 #33) 50% (bubble if 6-4), 23% home, proj. out
Last year 112.2 (8-3)