Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#194 Ravenna (7-2) 113.1

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#39 of 107 in Division III
#16 of 28 in Region 9
Eitel team page
Region 9 projections
Region 9 playoff probabilities
Region 9 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 27-21 H #176 Tallmadge (4-5 D3 R9), pick: L by 10 (68%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 21-10 H #219 New Philadelphia (4-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 20-23 A #324 Kent Roosevelt (2-7 D2 R5), pick: W by 14 (77%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 27-24 A #181 Peninsula Woodridge (5-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-12 H #498 Akron Springfield (2-7 D3 R9), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 46-20 A #418 Akron Coventry (3-6 D3 R9), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 14-21 H #198 Norton (7-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 3 (58%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 20-13 A #376 Lodi Cloverleaf (4-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 13 (79%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 27-17 A #320 Streetsboro (4-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 6 (65%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #476 Mogadore Field (1-8 D4 R13), pick: W by 23 (93%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#60 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
20.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R9 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-7%, 8W-93%

Playoff chance
18% now
20% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 19.30 (18.70-20.50) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 20.35 (19.75-21.55) 20% in, 0% home, proj. out

Playoff scenarios
93% W 20.35 pts, 20% in (out, range #6-out) Canfield 57%
7.0% L 19.30 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Tallmadge (4-5 D3 R9) over Richfield Revere (6-3 D3 R9)
Week 10: Alliance Marlington (8-1 D3 R9) over Alliance (6-3 D3 R9)
Week 10: New Philadelphia (4-5 D3 R9) over Dover (7-2 D2 R7)
Week 10: Akron Manchester (7-2 D5 R17) over Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (6-3 D4 R13)
Week 10: Akron Coventry (3-6 D3 R9) over Norton (7-2 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
57% Canfield (8-1)
32% Chagrin Falls Kenston (8-1)
7% Akron East (8-1)
2% Alliance Marlington (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 113.1 (7-2, #194, D3 #39) 18% , proj. out
W8: 113.0 (6-2, #193, D3 #42) 38% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. #7
W7: 113.8 (5-2, #188, D3 #39) 34% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 116.0 (5-1, #161, D3 #31) 63% (bubble if 8-2), 20% home, proj. #8
W5: 114.8 (4-1, #174, D3 #36) 46% (bubble if 8-2), 8% home, proj. #8
W4: 112.6 (3-1, #196, D3 #40) 34% (bubble if 8-2), 6% home, proj. out
W3: 113.4 (2-1, #186, D3 #42) 33% (need 8-2), 6% home, proj. out
W2: 118.7 (2-0, #136, D3 #25) 78% (need 8-2), 43% home, proj. #2
W1: 114.1 (1-0, #167, D3 #33) 54% (bubble if 7-3), 24% home, proj. #7
W0: 109.0 (0-0, #264, D3 #63) 13% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 109.2 (6-4)