Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#486 Ravenna Southeast (2-3) 90.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#78 of 106 in Division IV
#21 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-34 H #457 Bascom Hopewell-Loudon (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 10 (69%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 41-34 A #525 Mogadore Field (0-5 D4 R13), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 19-49 A #245 Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 27 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-21 H #183 Huron (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 40-6 A #585 Ashtabula Edgewood (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #215 Rootstown (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #122 Mogadore (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #477 Youngstown Valley Christian School (4-1 D7 R25), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #386 Mantua Crestwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 8 (69%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #402 Garrettsville Garfield (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 8 (69%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#66 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
5.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-19%, 3W-42%, 4W-30%, 5W-8%

Playoff chance
1% now
2% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.85 (9.00-14.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
4.8% LLWWW 10.40 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Worst realistic scenario
19% LLLLL 2.75 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% LLWLL 5.10 pts, out
11% LLWWL 7.65 pts, out
10% LLLWL 5.50 pts, out
8.5% LLWLW 7.70 pts, out
8.3% LLLLW 5.35 pts, out
4.9% LLLWW 8.05 pts, out
(13% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
48% Steubenville (4-1)
38% Poland Seminary (5-0)
10% Hubbard (5-0)
5% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 86.8 (1-3, #522, D4 #86) 1% , proj. out
W3: 86.2 (1-2, #531, D4 #87) 1% , proj. out
W2: 86.5 (1-1, #533, D4 #88) 1% , proj. out
W1: 85.5 (0-1, #554, D4 #93) 1% , proj. out
W0: 96.9 (0-0, #445, D4 #73) 5% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 97.2 (6-4)