Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#229 Rocky River (4-1) 110.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#47 of 107 in Division III
#9 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 30-24 A #391 Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 16 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 21-28 A #181 Medina Buckeye (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 41-7 H #604 Cleveland Collinwood (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 28 (93%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 16-14 H #313 Parma Heights Holy Name (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 46-26 H #451 Ashtabula Lakeside (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #151 Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #222 Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #526 Parma Normandy (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #555 Parma (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #377 Elyria Catholic (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 2 (54%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#95 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
16.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-2%, 6W-15%, 7W-39%, 8W-34%, 9W-11%

Playoff chance
86% now (bubble if 6-4), 26% home
99% with a win in next game, and 78% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.70 (7.95-14.35) 5% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.15 (9.80-19.05) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 16.45 (13.20-22.80) 91% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
8W: 20.45 (16.75-26.00) 100% in, 41% home, proj. #5 (#1-#8)
9W: 24.80 (22.35-27.85) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
11% WWWWW 24.80 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Bowling Green 22%

Worst realistic scenario
8.9% LLWWL 12.60 pts, 23% in (out, range #6-out) Sandusky 37%

Most likely other scenarios
21% LLWWW 15.75 pts, 85% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Bay 30%
17% LWWWW 19.95 pts, 100% in, 23% home (#5, range #2-#8) Glenville 39%
12% WLWWW 20.60 pts, 100% in, 49% home (#5, range #1-#7) Glenville 29%
6.7% LWWWL 16.85 pts, 95% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Bay 25%
5.2% WLWWL 17.40 pts, 97% in, 3% home (#6, range #3-out) Glenville 30%
4.0% WWWWL 21.65 pts, 100% in, 74% home (#4, range #1-#7) Glenville 21%
(14% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Cleveland Collinwood (0-5 D3 R9) over Cleveland East Technical (0-4 D3 R10)
Week 10: Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14) over Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14) over Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Cleveland Collinwood (0-5 D3 R9) over Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1)
Week 8: Ashtabula Lakeside (1-4 D2 R5) over Hunting Valley University School (2-3 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
22% Cleveland Glenville (3-2)
18% Bay Village Bay (5-0)
15% Sandusky (5-0)
15% Norwalk (4-1)
13% Tiffin Columbian (4-1)

Championship probabilities
1.2% Region 10 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 107.4 (3-1, #266, D3 #54) 67% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home, proj. #6
W3: 105.5 (2-1, #294, D3 #57) 48% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home, proj. out
W2: 103.9 (1-1, #318, D3 #66) 41% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home, proj. #8
W1: 107.0 (1-0, #271, D3 #60) 61% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home, proj. out
W0: 111.3 (0-0, #234, D3 #54) 61% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home, proj. #4
Last year 112.3 (7-3)