Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#339 Streetsboro (2-3) 102.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#49 of 106 in Division IV
#16 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-44 A #75 Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 20 (83%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 28-35 H #216 Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 24-14 A #407 Chagrin Falls (0-5 D4 R14), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 40-12 A #465 Akron Springfield (1-4 D3 R9), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 28-49 H #242 Peninsula Woodridge (1-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #525 Mogadore Field (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #335 Akron Coventry (3-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #193 Norton (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #174 Ravenna (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #395 Lodi Cloverleaf (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 9 (69%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#17 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
7.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-2%, 3W-16%, 4W-36%, 5W-32%, 6W-12%

Playoff chance
7% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
7% with a win in next game, and 4% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 7.90 (5.25-13.95) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.10 (8.00-17.55) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.50 (12.35-18.80) 37% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.70 (16.70-20.85) 99% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.8% WWLWW 14.40 pts, 30% in (out, range #6-out) Steubenville 40%

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% LLLLL 3.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WWLLW 10.10 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
12% WLLLW 6.90 pts, out
10% WWLLL 7.55 pts, out
9.5% WLLLL 4.70 pts, out
4.3% WWWLW 14.10 pts, 28% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 37%
4.0% WLLWW 11.25 pts, 2% in (out, range #8-out)
(39% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Weir WV (4-1 D4) over East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 6: Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9) over Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 10: Chagrin Falls (0-5 D4 R14) over Geneva (2-3 D3 R9)
Week 7: Martins Ferry (4-1 D5 R19) over Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 9: Chagrin Falls (0-5 D4 R14) over Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
34% Steubenville (4-1)
27% Poland Seminary (5-0)
18% Perry (4-1)
16% Hubbard (5-0)
5% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 107.5 (2-2, #264, D4 #36) 28% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 103.6 (1-2, #313, D4 #43) 8% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 97.8 (0-2, #394, D4 #58) 1% , proj. out
W1: 96.6 (0-1, #413, D4 #60) 1% , proj. out
W0: 99.9 (0-0, #395, D4 #59) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 97.0 (4-6)