Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#374 Warrensville Heights (2-3) 99.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#44 of 106 in Division V
#12 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 30-19 H #345 Hunting Valley University School (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 13 (74%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-35 H #225 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0 D5 R17), pick: W by 10 (69%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 28-48 A #303 Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 18-37 A #153 Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 36-6 A #559 Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #380 East Cleveland Shaw (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #79 Lorain (3-2 D1 R2), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #155 Cleveland Heights (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #71 Maple Heights (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #191 Bedford (1-4 D2 R5), pick: L by 13 (78%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#11 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-27%, 3W-47%, 4W-22%, 5W-4%

Playoff chance
2% now
2% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.30 (5.70-15.20) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 12.95 (9.90-17.90) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.5% WLLWL 11.40 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
27% LLLLL 4.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
31% WLLLL 6.00 pts, out
10% WLLLW 8.30 pts, out
8.1% LLLLW 6.50 pts, out
4.6% WLWLL 9.75 pts, out
4.1% LLWLL 7.95 pts, out
(12% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
24% Wickliffe (5-0)
19% Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0)
17% Akron Manchester (4-1)
12% Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0)
10% Orrville (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.4 (1-3, #385, D5 #48) 1% , proj. out
W3: 96.6 (1-2, #409, D5 #53) 1% , proj. out
W2: 102.4 (1-1, #336, D5 #34) 10% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 110.0 (1-0, #224, D5 #14) 59% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home, proj. #7
W0: 102.4 (0-0, #361, D5 #36) 12% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home, proj. out
Last year 109.7 (4-6)