Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#271 Youngstown Liberty (4-1) 106.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#17 of 110 in Division VI
#9 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-35 A #219 Struthers (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 8 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 29-7 H #439 Cortland Lakeview (1-4 D4 R13), pick: L by 15 (78%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 63-0 A #676 Andover Pymatuning Valley (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 28 (93%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 47-27 H #373 Brookfield (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 53-7 A #599 Campbell Memorial (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #642 Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 29 (96%)
Oct 11 (W8) H #595 Jefferson Area (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 26 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #606 Newton Falls (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 26 (94%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #226 Girard (4-1 D4 R13), pick: W by 1 (52%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#43 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
14.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-3%, 7W-28%, 8W-47%, 9W-21%

Playoff chance
26% now (need 9-1), 2% home
46% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 11.10 (8.90-16.75) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 14.75 (12.45-19.85) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out
9W: 18.55 (16.90-20.40) 96% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
21% WWWWW 18.55 pts, 96% in, 7% home (#6, range #2-out) Kirtland 25%

Worst realistic scenario
22% LWWWL 10.80 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
26% WWWWL 14.80 pts, 9% in (out, range #6-out) Mogadore 64%
19% LWWWW 14.55 pts, 6% in (out, range #6-out) Mogadore 66%
(12% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Andover Pymatuning Valley (1-4 D6 R21) over Southington Chalker (3-2 D7 R25)
Week 10: Beverly Fort Frye (4-0 D6 R23) over Steubenville Catholic Central (4-1 D6 R21)
Week 7: Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14) over Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21)
Week 7: West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19) over Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21)
Week 9: Andover Pymatuning Valley (1-4 D6 R21) over Vienna Mathews (1-4 D7 R25)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
25% Kirtland (5-0)
24% Mogadore (4-1)
19% Salineville Southern (5-0)
9% Creston Norwayne (4-1)
7% Rootstown (5-0)

Championship probabilities
0.5% Region 21 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 107.5 (3-1, #263, D6 #15) 42% (bubble if 8-2), 8% home, proj. #8
W3: 104.1 (2-1, #309, D6 #21) 26% (bubble if 8-2), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 106.3 (1-1, #275, D6 #15) 55% (need 8-2), 15% home, proj. #6
W1: 100.2 (0-1, #365, D6 #27) 22% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
W0: 106.5 (0-0, #289, D6 #13) 48% (bubble if 7-3), 21% home, proj. #6
Last year 112.7 (8-3)