Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#37 Avon (4-1) 133.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#8 of 108 in Division II
#2 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 19-11 H #102 Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 52-14 H #96 Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 7 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 28-31 A #40 Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-21 H #241 North Olmsted (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 19 (85%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 49-6 A #302 Grafton Midview (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #298 Westlake (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #415 Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #309 North Ridgeville (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #93 Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6), pick: W by 10 (71%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #136 Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1), pick: W by 14 (80%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Best team performances

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#23 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
23.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-1%, 7W-10%, 8W-41%, 9W-49%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 64% home
99% with a win in next game, and 96% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 19.60 (16.55-25.65) 95% in, 7% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 23.15 (20.20-28.10) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #5 (#1-#8)
9W: 27.45 (25.65-30.30) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #3 (#1-#6)

Best realistic scenario
49% WWWWW 27.45 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#3, range #1-#6) Springfield 27%

Worst realistic scenario
5.2% WWWLL 18.95 pts, 92% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Central Catholic 31%

Most likely other scenarios
24% WWWLW 22.60 pts, 100% in, 17% home (#5, range #3-#8) Avon Lake 30%
11% WWWWL 23.75 pts, 100% in, 54% home (#4, range #2-#8) Amherst Steele 21%
2.8% WWLWW 25.55 pts, 100% in, 81% home (#4, range #1-#6) Springfield 22%
2.2% LWWWW 25.50 pts, 100% in, 82% home (#4, range #2-#6) Springfield 24%
(7% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 9: Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6) over Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6)
Week 7: Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 6: Garfield Heights (5-0 D2 R5) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 8: Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1) over Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
21% Amherst Steele (5-0)
19% Holland Springfield (4-1)
17% Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1)
17% Avon Lake (5-0)
7% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)

Championship probabilities
14% Region 6 champ
0.9% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 132.8 (3-1, #36, D2 #8) 98% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home, proj. #4
W3: 132.0 (2-1, #42, D2 #8) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 64% home, proj. #4
W2: 136.7 (2-0, #22, D2 #6) 99% (need 7-3), 94% home, proj. #2
W1: 134.3 (1-0, #24, D2 #6) 97% (bubble if 6-4), 81% home, proj. #2
W0: 138.2 (0-0, #19, D2 #4) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 83% home, proj. #2
Last year 145.1 (13-1)