Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#199 Bellevue (2-3) 112.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#21 of 106 in Division IV
#6 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-14 A #211 Canton Central Catholic (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 12-40 H #63 Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 27-31 H #141 Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 45-28 H #267 Shelby (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 20-13 A #322 Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #146 Norwalk (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #369 Sandusky Perkins (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #142 Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #73 Sandusky (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #170 Clyde (3-2 D3 R10), pick: W by 1 (53%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#7 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
11.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-3%, 3W-22%, 4W-38%, 5W-27%, 6W-9%

Playoff chance
23% now (bubble if 5-5), 4% home
42% with a win in next game, and 13% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 11.85 (8.65-17.75) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out
5W: 15.70 (12.35-20.90) 44% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 19.60 (16.85-24.40) 99% in, 27% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.1% WWWLW 19.05 pts, 98% in, 15% home (#6, range #3-out) Huron 19%

Worst realistic scenario
3.4% LLLLL 6.40 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% LWLLL 7.90 pts, out
12% LWLLW 11.25 pts, out
8.6% LWWLL 11.90 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
8.0% LWWLW 15.30 pts, 30% in (out, range #5-out) St Marys Memorial 43%
7.2% WWLLL 11.65 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.1% WWLLW 15.05 pts, 28% in (out, range #6-out) Clear Fork 45%
(36% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2) over Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10)
Week 7: Shelby (3-2 D4 R14) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)
Week 6: Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2) over Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 8: Shelby (3-2 D4 R14) over Port Clinton (2-3 D4 R14)
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
27% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
25% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
12% Kenton (3-2)
11% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
11% Huron (4-1)

Championship probabilities
0.5% Region 14 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 114.7 (1-3, #177, D4 #14) 23% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 108.2 (0-3, #256, D4 #32) 6% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 108.9 (0-2, #236, D4 #28) 17% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home, proj. out
W1: 113.6 (0-1, #177, D4 #18) 53% (need 5-5), 25% home, proj. #7
W0: 119.9 (0-0, #121, D4 #11) 72% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home, proj. #4
Last year 124.7 (9-4)