Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#310 Bryan (4-1) 104.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#42 of 106 in Division IV
#13 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-34 A #186 Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-14 H #542 Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 9 (67%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-20 H #425 Sherwood Fairview (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-0 A #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 14-7 H #443 Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 12 (75%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #266 Archbold (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 9 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #500 Delta (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #168 Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 7 (67%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #429 Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 14 (80%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#77 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 7-3
15.83 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #8 seed in R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-11%, 6W-29%, 7W-37%, 8W-18%, 9W-3%

Playoff chance
42% now (bubble if 7-3), 6% home
67% with a win in next game, and 25% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.53 (8.06-14.98) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.05 (10.18-17.24) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 15.83 (12.44-20.12) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
8W: 18.90 (16.13-22.39) 97% in, 15% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
9W: 22.28 (20.67-24.76) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #4 (#1-#6)

Best realistic scenario
3.3% WWWWW 22.28 pts, 100% in, 86% home (#4, range #1-#6) Kenton 27%

Worst realistic scenario
4.9% LWLLL 10.13 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
13% LWWLW 14.82 pts, 24% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Clear Fork 48%
9.3% LWLLW 12.55 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
8.2% WWWLW 18.25 pts, 94% in, 6% home (#6, range #3-out) Clear Fork 22%
6.9% WWLLW 15.93 pts, 56% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) St Marys Memorial 42%
6.4% LWWLL 12.50 pts, 3% in (out, range #6-out)
4.8% LWWWW 19.06 pts, 99% in, 15% home (#6, range #3-out) Kenton 18%
(43% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10) over Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10)
Week 10: Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23) over Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 7: Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21) over Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 9: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Shelby (3-2 D4 R14)
Week 6: Sherwood Fairview (3-2 D6 R22) over Haviland Wayne Trace (3-2 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
26% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
25% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
13% Kenton (3-2)
12% Huron (4-1)
10% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.0 (3-1, #298, D4 #41) 40% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. #8
W3: 101.7 (2-1, #342, D4 #48) 22% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 99.5 (1-1, #375, D4 #56) 9% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 97.2 (0-1, #402, D4 #57) 7% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 105.1 (0-0, #312, D4 #44) 21% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 105.2 (6-4)