Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#274 Defiance (3-2) 106.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#57 of 107 in Division III
#11 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-21 A #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 17-14 A #330 Lima Shawnee (1-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 7 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 10-48 H #98 Kenton (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 11 (72%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 42-46 H #252 Elida (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 28-7 A #529 Lima Bath (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #140 Celina (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #265 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #91 Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #59 St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 17 (85%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #186 Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 7 (66%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#59 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
8.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-18%, 4W-40%, 5W-30%, 6W-11%

Playoff chance
11% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
25% with a win in next game, and 5% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 8.70 (5.95-12.70) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.85 (9.00-16.85) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 15.50 (12.55-19.35) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
7W: 19.65 (17.40-23.05) 99% in, 18% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
3.5% WWLLW 14.80 pts, 45% in (out, range #5-out) Sandusky 36%

Worst realistic scenario
18% LLLLL 5.75 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% LWLLL 7.80 pts, out
8.9% LWLLW 10.85 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
8.3% LLLLW 8.85 pts, out
7.3% WWLLL 11.70 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)
6.7% WLLLL 9.35 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
3.1% LLWLL 9.90 pts, out
(25% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14) over Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10)
Week 6: Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14) over Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6)
Week 10: Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18) over Elida (2-3 D3 R12)
Week 6: Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9) over Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10)
Week 6: Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6) over Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
31% Sandusky (5-0)
23% Bay Village Bay (5-0)
14% Norwalk (4-1)
13% Tiffin Columbian (4-1)
11% Cleveland Glenville (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 106.7 (2-2, #275, D3 #56) 8% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 107.4 (2-1, #267, D3 #54) 10% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 106.4 (2-0, #273, D3 #55) 16% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 103.0 (1-0, #321, D3 #71) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 97.9 (0-0, #423, D3 #87) 1% , proj. out
Last year 93.0 (1-9)