Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#264 Delaware Buckeye Valley (5-4) 108.4

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#57 of 107 in Division III
#14 of 27 in Region 11
Eitel team page
Region 11 projections
Region 11 playoff probabilities
Region 11 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-24 H #143 Delaware Hayes (6-3 D1 R2), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 28-42 A #243 Sunbury Big Walnut (3-6 D2 R8), pick: L by 7 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 10-20 A #357 Mount Vernon (3-6 D2 R7), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 8-6 A #400 Caledonia River Valley (3-6 D4 R14), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-44 H #72 Bellville Clear Fork (9-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 19-16 A #406 Ontario (3-6 D4 R14), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 18-6 H #174 Marion Pleasant (7-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 19 (88%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 27-13 A #448 Marion Harding (2-7 D2 R6), pick: W by 13 (79%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 31-20 H #272 Richwood North Union (6-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #358 Galion (5-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 9 (72%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets
Playoff streaks & droughts
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#47 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
16.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R11 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-28%, 6W-72%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 16.75 (16.65-17.25) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Playoff scenarios
72% W 16.75 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out) Bishop Hartley 95%
28% L 13.85 pts, out

Teams to root for
Week 10: New Richmond (6-3 D3 R11) over Goshen (6-3 D3 R11)
Week 10: Columbus Bishop Watterson (4-5 D3 R11) over Columbus St Francis DeSales (5-4 D3 R11)
Week 10: Chillicothe (7-2 D2 R8) over Jackson (6-3 D3 R11)
Week 10: Nelsonville-York (4-5 D6 R23) over The Plains Athens (8-1 D3 R11)
Week 10: Lewistown Indian Lake (3-6 D5 R18) over Bellefontaine (6-3 D3 R11)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
95% Columbus Bishop Hartley (7-2)
5% Granville (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 108.4 (5-4, #264, D3 #57) 1% , proj. out
W8: 106.8 (4-4, #282, D3 #59) 1% , proj. out
W7: 106.7 (3-4, #281, D3 #59) 1% , proj. out
W6: 101.5 (2-4, #348, D3 #69) 1% , proj. out
W5: 98.1 (1-4, #391, D3 #82) 1% , proj. out
W4: 97.5 (1-3, #398, D3 #80) 1% , proj. out
W3: 98.8 (0-3, #384, D3 #78) 1% , proj. out
W2: 102.0 (0-2, #345, D3 #72) 1% , proj. out
W1: 102.8 (0-1, #323, D3 #72) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 110.0 (0-0, #252, D3 #60) 18% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 114.8 (7-3)