Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#252 Elida (2-3) 107.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#53 of 107 in Division III
#13 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 3-35 A #142 Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 14 (75%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 53-14 H #529 Lima Bath (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 15 (78%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 36-56 H #140 Celina (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 46-42 A #274 Defiance (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 12-56 H #91 Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #59 St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #186 Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #330 Lima Shawnee (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #98 Kenton (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #265 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 4 (60%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#29 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
8.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-9%, 3W-33%, 4W-38%, 5W-17%, 6W-4%

Playoff chance
2% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
11% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 8.10 (6.35-13.50) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.20 (9.35-16.70) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.85 (13.45-18.55) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.0% WLWLW 12.15 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
8.6% LLLLL 3.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LLWLL 5.05 pts, out
15% LLWLW 7.35 pts, out
8.8% LWWLL 8.15 pts, out
8.7% LLLLW 5.55 pts, out
7.3% LWWLW 10.50 pts, out
4.6% LWLLL 6.65 pts, out
(29% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14) over Celina (4-1 D3 R12)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
36% Kettering Archbishop Alter (4-1)
35% Dayton Chaminade Julienne (5-0)
9% Trotwood-Madison (3-2)
6% Wapakoneta (4-1)
5% Franklin Bishop Fenwick (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.1 (2-2, #256, D3 #52) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 103.9 (1-2, #311, D3 #60) 1% , proj. out
W2: 104.2 (1-1, #310, D3 #63) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 104.1 (0-1, #303, D3 #67) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 117.5 (0-0, #154, D3 #29) 42% (bubble if 7-3), 16% home, proj. out
Last year 120.1 (8-3)