Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#98 Kenton (3-2) 122.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#8 of 106 in Division IV
#3 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 27-52 H #34 Coldwater (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 10 (69%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-13 H #140 Celina (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 9 (67%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 48-10 A #274 Defiance (3-2 D3 R10), pick: W by 11 (72%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 15-10 H #91 Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 29-70 A #59 St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #186 Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #330 Lima Shawnee (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #265 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #252 Elida (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #529 Lima Bath (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 32 (97%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances
Most improved teams
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#2 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
19.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #4 seed in R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-3%, 6W-14%, 7W-41%, 8W-42%

Playoff chance
95% now (need 6-4), 52% home
99% with a win in next game, and 83% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 14.48 (11.95-17.55) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 16.90 (14.10-20.35) 81% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
7W: 19.40 (17.30-23.00) 99% in, 34% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
8W: 22.00 (21.30-23.80) 100% in, 89% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
42% WWWWW 22.00 pts, 100% in, 89% home (#3, range #1-#7) Orange 20%

Worst realistic scenario
2.7% LWWLW 16.25 pts, 66% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) St Marys Memorial 39%

Most likely other scenarios
16% LWWWW 18.50 pts, 98% in, 16% home (#6, range #2-out) Huron 18%
9.9% WWLWW 19.60 pts, 99% in, 41% home (#5, range #2-out) Orange 24%
7.9% WWWLW 19.55 pts, 99% in, 38% home (#5, range #2-out) Orange 25%
7.0% WLWWW 20.10 pts, 100% in, 53% home (#4, range #1-#8) Orange 21%
3.3% LWLWW 16.45 pts, 68% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) St Marys Memorial 35%
2.5% LLWWW 16.55 pts, 78% in, 2% home (#7, range #4-out) St Marys Memorial 32%
(9% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Huron (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 10: Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17) over Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14)
Week 10: Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12) over St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14)
Week 8: Celina (4-1 D3 R12) over St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14)
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
18% Huron (4-1)
16% Marengo Highland (4-1)
11% Milan Edison (3-1)
7% St Marys Memorial (5-0)

Championship probabilities
15% Region 14 champ
2.7% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 125.6 (3-1, #71, D4 #6) 97% (need 6-4), 72% home, proj. #3
W3: 122.8 (2-1, #90, D4 #8) 73% (bubble if 6-4), 31% home, proj. #6
W2: 119.1 (1-1, #130, D4 #13) 60% (bubble if 6-4), 23% home, proj. #7
W1: 109.4 (0-1, #231, D4 #29) 18% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 114.5 (0-0, #196, D4 #18) 37% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. out
Last year 113.1 (5-5)