Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#331 Lima Shawnee (1-4) 103.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 6:08PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#60 of 107 in Division III
#15 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) W 49-0 A #570 Delphos Jefferson (1-4 D6 R24), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-17 H #275 Defiance (3-2 D3 R10), pick: W by 7 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-32 A #91 Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 24 (90%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 26-27 H #60 St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-39 A #188 Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #267 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #98 Kenton (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #253 Elida (2-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #529 Lima Bath (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #139 Celina (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 14 (79%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#27 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
4.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-4%, 2W-28%, 3W-42%, 4W-22%, 5W-5%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.3% LWWWL 7.85 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
3.6% LLLLL 1.20 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
22% LLLWL 1.75 pts, out
18% WLLWL 4.05 pts, out
13% LLWWL 4.15 pts, out
9.8% WLWWL 6.15 pts, out
4.5% LLLWW 5.60 pts, out
3.7% LWLWL 5.80 pts, out
(24% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.0 (1-3, #297, D3 #57) 1% , proj. out
W3: 102.8 (1-2, #327, D3 #63) 1% , proj. out
W2: 102.4 (1-1, #337, D3 #69) 2% , proj. out
W1: 108.3 (1-0, #244, D3 #52) 18% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 104.5 (0-0, #323, D3 #73) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 106.7 (4-6)