Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#300 Napoleon (3-2) 105.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#39 of 106 in Division IV
#12 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-35 H #274 Defiance (3-2 D3 R10), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-21 A #168 Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 19 (83%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 43-6 A #443 Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 13-6 H #262 Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 27-7 A #495 Maumee (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #275 Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #115 Holland Springfield (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #461 Sylvania Southview (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #42 Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #189 Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 13 (79%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#34 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
10.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-6%, 4W-33%, 5W-41%, 6W-18%, 7W-2%

Playoff chance
5% now (need 7-3), 1% home
9% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.25 (8.05-16.75) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.10 (12.15-19.50) 15% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.60 (16.95-22.60) 95% in, 9% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.0% WWWLL 14.70 pts, 15% in (out, range #5-out) Clear Fork 44%

Worst realistic scenario
6.2% LLLLL 5.05 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
22% LLWLL 6.65 pts, out
22% WLWLL 10.00 pts, out
9.1% LLWLW 10.05 pts, out
8.7% WLWLW 13.40 pts, 2% in (out, range #8-out)
6.3% WLLLL 8.45 pts, out
4.1% LWWLL 11.35 pts, out
(18% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14) over Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 7: Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6) over Findlay (2-3 D1 R2)
Week 9: Middlefield Cardinal (1-4 D6 R21) over Richmond Heights (2-3 D7 R25)
Week 7: Camden Preble Shawnee (1-4 D5 R20) over West Milton Milton-Union (2-3 D5 R18)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
33% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
31% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
10% Kenton (3-2)
9% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
9% Huron (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 103.4 (2-2, #322, D4 #43) 3% , proj. out
W3: 101.0 (1-2, #350, D4 #50) 2% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 93.7 (0-2, #447, D4 #70) 1% , proj. out
W1: 93.5 (0-1, #463, D4 #72) 1% , proj. out
W0: 102.6 (0-0, #356, D4 #51) 7% (need 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 99.9 (1-9)