Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#475 Oberlin Firelands (2-3) 91.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#75 of 106 in Division IV
#22 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 23-41 H #230 Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 7 (62%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 34-7 H #687 New London (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 27 (91%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-19 A #491 Vermilion (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-48 A #127 Ashland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 14 (78%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-35 H #391 Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #622 Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #643 Wellington (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #181 Medina Buckeye (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #378 Sullivan Black River (3-2 D5 R17), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #476 La Grange Keystone (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#58 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 5-5
7.25 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-10%, 4W-38%, 5W-37%, 6W-13%, 7W-1%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.7% WWWLW 10.93 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
5.5% LWLLL 3.42 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% WWLLL 4.68 pts, out
20% WWLLW 6.59 pts, out
9.8% WWLWL 7.81 pts, out
8.6% WWLWW 9.62 pts, out
5.7% LWLLW 5.28 pts, out
2.9% WLLLL 3.67 pts, out
(21% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.6 (2-2, #382, D4 #57) 1% , proj. out
W3: 103.1 (2-1, #320, D4 #44) 15% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 99.9 (1-1, #366, D4 #53) 8% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 98.7 (0-1, #383, D4 #52) 8% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 104.3 (0-0, #324, D4 #47) 22% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 111.6 (8-2)