Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#432 Rossford (2-3) 95.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#55 of 106 in Division V
#16 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 29-34 A #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 33-47 H #284 Port Clinton (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 44-48 A #406 Northwood (4-1 D6 R22), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-13 A #645 Elmore Woodmore (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-34 H #276 Pemberville Eastwood (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #279 Millbury Lake (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #600 Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #109 Genoa Area (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 28 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #516 Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #311 Tontogany Otsego (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 13 (77%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#47 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-2%, 3W-18%, 4W-42%, 5W-29%, 6W-7%

Playoff chance
2% now
4% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.65 (8.75-14.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.20 (12.15-16.30) 16% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
5.4% WWLWW 12.20 pts, 7% in (out, range #7-out) Genoa Area 33%

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% LLLLL 4.15 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
26% LWLWL 6.30 pts, out
13% LWLWW 9.25 pts, out
11% LWLLL 4.60 pts, out
11% WWLWL 9.25 pts, out
5.7% LLLWL 5.85 pts, out
5.5% LWLLW 7.55 pts, out
(21% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
27% Liberty Center (5-0)
22% Genoa Area (5-0)
20% Marion Pleasant (5-0)
11% Archbold (4-1)
10% Casstown Miami East (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 89.7 (1-3, #496, D5 #66) 1% , proj. out
W3: 86.9 (0-3, #523, D5 #74) 1% , proj. out
W2: 92.4 (0-2, #469, D5 #69) 1% , proj. out
W1: 97.1 (0-1, #404, D5 #51) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 100.8 (0-0, #381, D5 #46) 18% (need 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 100.7 (4-6)