Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#267 Shelby (3-2) 107.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#36 of 106 in Division IV
#10 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 48-8 H #512 Mansfield Madison Comprehensive (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 26 (89%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 27-24 A #359 Lexington (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 24 (89%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 63-0 H #502 Willard (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 28 (93%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 28-45 A #199 Bellevue (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-49 A #146 Norwalk (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #183 Huron (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #230 Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #284 Port Clinton (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #236 Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #491 Vermilion (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#38 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 6-4
14.11 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-13%, 5W-30%, 6W-34%, 7W-17%, 8W-3%

Playoff chance
23% now (need 7-3), 3% home
45% with a win in next game, and 9% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 11.03 (7.70-15.43) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.11 (10.88-19.41) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 17.29 (14.06-20.67) 84% in, 5% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 20.62 (19.00-22.69) 100% in, 63% home, proj. #4 (#2-#8)

Best realistic scenario
3.4% WWWWW 20.62 pts, 100% in, 63% home (#4, range #2-#8) Kenton 25%

Worst realistic scenario
7.5% LLLLW 7.56 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
6.9% LLWLW 9.92 pts, out
6.5% LLLWW 11.24 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.4% LLWWW 13.56 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)
5.9% LWWLW 12.90 pts, 2% in (out, range #8-out)
5.8% LWLLW 10.53 pts, out
5.8% LWLWW 14.21 pts, 12% in (out, range #6-out) St Marys Memorial 46%
(52% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Mansfield Madison Comprehensive (1-4 D3 R10) over Mount Vernon (2-3 D2 R7)
Week 10: Lexington (1-4 D3 R10) over Canton South (2-3 D4 R13)
Week 7: Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21) over Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 6: Archbold (4-1 D5 R18) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
26% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
26% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
14% Kenton (3-2)
13% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
8% Huron (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 109.5 (3-1, #233, D4 #28) 46% (need 7-3), 12% home, proj. out
W3: 112.5 (3-0, #192, D4 #18) 58% (bubble if 7-3), 20% home, proj. #8
W2: 113.9 (2-0, #174, D4 #18) 75% (need 7-3), 38% home, proj. #4
W1: 121.6 (1-0, #94, D4 #8) 93% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home, proj. #2
W0: 123.3 (0-0, #88, D4 #5) 89% (bubble if 6-4), 68% home, proj. #1
Last year 137.2 (13-1)