Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#346 Springfield Shawnee (5-4) 101.6

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#50 of 107 in Division IV
#11 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 40-21 H #527 Springfield Greenon (5-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 28 (91%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-38 A #216 Tipp City Tippecanoe (4-5 D3 R12), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 30-17 H #462 Dayton Thurgood Marshall (3-6 D3 R12), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-21 A #472 Lewistown Indian Lake (3-6 D5 R18), pick: W by 21 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 40-35 H #367 Springfield Northwestern (6-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 14-17 H #330 New Carlisle Tecumseh (5-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 12-47 A #360 Urbana (4-5 D4 R16), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Oct 11 (W8) L 30-47 A #349 Springfield Kenton Ridge (5-4 D4 R16), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 34-0 A #244 Bellefontaine (6-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 21 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #234 Plain City Jonathan Alder (6-3 D4 R16), pick: L by 7 (67%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#55 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
14.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #8 seed in R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-66%, 6W-34%

Playoff chance
57% now (bubble if 5-5)
100% with a win in next game, and 36% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 14.75 (13.70-15.20) 36% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 18.40 (17.35-18.85) 100% in, 0% home, proj. #7 (#7-#8)

Playoff scenarios
34% W 18.40 pts, 100% in (#7, range #7-#8) Clinton-Massie 71%
66% L 14.75 pts, 36% in (out, range #8-out) Wyoming 72%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Mount Orab Western Brown (3-6 D2 R8) over Batavia (6-3 D4 R16)
Week 10: Springfield Greenon (5-4 D5 R18) over South Charleston Southeastern Local (3-6 D7 R28)
Week 10: Dayton Thurgood Marshall (3-6 D3 R12) over Dayton Ponitz Tech (2-7 D3 R12)
Week 10: New Carlisle Tecumseh (5-4 D2 R8) over Springfield Kenton Ridge (5-4 D4 R16)
Week 10: Cincinnati Taft (7-1 D4 R16) over Cincinnati Aiken (6-3 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
52% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (8-1)
37% Cincinnati Wyoming (9-0)
11% Cincinnati Indian Hill (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 101.6 (5-4, #346, D4 #50) 57% (bubble if 5-5), proj. #8
W8: 97.7 (4-4, #403, D4 #61) 20% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W7: 99.0 (4-3, #384, D4 #56) 23% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 104.4 (4-2, #310, D4 #43) 50% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. #7
W5: 104.8 (4-1, #304, D4 #41) 47% (need 7-3), 5% home, proj. #8
W4: 105.2 (3-1, #292, D4 #39) 50% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home, proj. #7
W3: 104.2 (2-1, #307, D4 #42) 38% (need 7-3), 7% home, proj. #8
W2: 100.7 (1-1, #359, D4 #52) 23% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 104.0 (1-0, #305, D4 #41) 46% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home, proj. #8
W0: 107.4 (0-0, #283, D4 #36) 40% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home, proj. #8
Last year 108.1 (5-5)