Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#59 St Marys Memorial (5-0) 128.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#3 of 106 in Division IV
#1 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-7 H #145 Sidney (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-6 H #265 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 38-6 A #186 Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 18 (83%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 27-26 A #330 Lima Shawnee (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 70-29 H #98 Kenton (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #252 Elida (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #529 Lima Bath (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #140 Celina (4-1 D3 R12), pick: W by 10 (71%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #274 Defiance (3-2 D3 R10), pick: W by 17 (85%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #91 Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12), pick: W by 3 (57%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#8 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
26.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-3%, 8W-17%, 9W-43%, 10W-37%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 98% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 19.77 (17.55-23.55) 99% in, 52% home, proj. #4 (#2-out)
8W: 22.85 (19.65-28.20) 100% in, 97% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
9W: 26.15 (23.65-30.45) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)
10W: 30.20 (28.40-31.65) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#2)

Best realistic scenario
37% WWWWW 30.20 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Highland 12%

Worst realistic scenario
6.9% WWLWL 21.90 pts, 100% in, 93% home (#3, range #1-#6) Highland 18%

Most likely other scenarios
21% WWWWL 25.65 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Highland 15%
12% WWLWW 26.20 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Highland 15%
5.4% LWWWW 27.70 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Highland 13%
5.1% WWWLW 27.55 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Highland 14%
3.1% LWWWL 23.33 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Highland 17%
2.9% WWWLL 23.00 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Highland 16%
(7% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Marion Pleasant (5-0 D5 R18) over Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14)
Week 6: Sidney (3-2 D2 R8) over Piqua (3-2 D3 R12)
Week 9: Sidney (3-2 D2 R8) over Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% Marengo Highland (4-1)
11% Bryan (4-1)
10% Milan Edison (3-1)
9% Lorain Clearview (4-1)
8% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)

Championship probabilities
41% Region 14 champ
13% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 125.6 (4-0, #72, D4 #7) 98% (bubble if 6-4), 83% home, proj. #2
W3: 130.4 (3-0, #45, D4 #3) 99% (need 6-4), 93% home, proj. #1
W2: 128.6 (2-0, #50, D4 #2) 99% (need 6-4), 92% home, proj. #1
W1: 123.4 (1-0, #80, D4 #5) 92% (need 6-4), 72% home, proj. #1
W0: 119.3 (0-0, #126, D4 #12) 64% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home, proj. #3
Last year 127.0 (10-2)