Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#254 Sunbury Big Walnut (1-4) 107.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#69 of 108 in Division II
#18 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 38-43 H #154 Johnstown-Monroe (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-28 H #390 Delaware Buckeye Valley (1-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 7 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 26-28 H #82 Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-35 A #120 Lewis Center Olentangy Orange (3-2 D1 R2), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 17-45 H #118 Marysville (3-2 D1 R2), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #392 Newark (1-4 D1 R2), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #450 Columbus Franklin Heights (1-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #52 New Albany (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #224 Groveport Madison (2-3 D1 R3), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #165 Canal Winchester (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 8 (68%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#39 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-2%, 2W-16%, 3W-38%, 4W-33%, 5W-10%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
7.2% WWLWW 13.15 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% LLLLL 2.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% WWLLL 5.40 pts, out
17% WWLWL 8.70 pts, out
7.3% WWLLW 10.10 pts, out
7.0% LWLLL 3.80 pts, out
6.3% LWLWL 6.85 pts, out
6.3% WLLLL 3.90 pts, out
(27% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.2 (1-3, #254, D2 #72) 1% , proj. out
W3: 110.8 (1-2, #214, D2 #62) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 113.2 (1-1, #182, D2 #51) 7% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 108.0 (0-1, #251, D2 #70) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 111.4 (0-0, #231, D2 #67) 18% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 110.6 (4-6)