Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#142 Tiffin Columbian (4-1) 118.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#26 of 107 in Division III
#3 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-3 H #252 Elida (2-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-31 A #42 Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 14 (76%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 31-28 H #127 Ashland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 28-14 A #322 Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 43-0 H #491 Vermilion (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #73 Sandusky (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #170 Clyde (3-2 D3 R10), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #199 Bellevue (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #369 Sandusky Perkins (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #146 Norwalk (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 2 (55%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#41 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
20.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-8%, 6W-27%, 7W-36%, 8W-23%, 9W-6%

Playoff chance
94% now (bubble if 5-5), 50% home
99% with a win in next game, and 91% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 14.15 (10.80-19.30) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
6W: 17.30 (12.35-23.65) 94% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
7W: 20.70 (16.25-27.55) 99% in, 54% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
8W: 24.35 (20.50-29.85) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
9W: 28.40 (25.90-31.35) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#2)

Best realistic scenario
5.5% WWWWW 28.40 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Bowling Green 17%

Worst realistic scenario
4.4% LLLWL 13.45 pts, 37% in (out, range #6-out) Sandusky 42%

Most likely other scenarios
9.7% LWWWW 23.35 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#6) Norwalk 21%
8.3% LLWWW 19.95 pts, 100% in, 40% home (#5, range #2-#8) Glenville 27%
7.5% LWWWL 19.52 pts, 99% in, 19% home (#5, range #2-out) Glenville 39%
7.3% LLWWL 16.15 pts, 83% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Sandusky 29%
6.5% LWLWW 20.90 pts, 100% in, 65% home (#4, range #1-#7) Norwalk 22%
5.6% LWLWL 16.90 pts, 95% in, 2% home (#6, range #4-out) Glenville 26%
(45% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2) over Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 9: Ashland (4-1 D2 R7) over Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9)
Week 10: Ashland (4-1 D2 R7) over Wooster (3-2 D2 R7)
Week 7: Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6) over Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10)
Week 7: Ashland (4-1 D2 R7) over Mansfield (2-3 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
19% Cleveland Glenville (3-2)
17% Norwalk (4-1)
12% Rocky River (4-1)
11% Bay Village Bay (5-0)
10% Sandusky (5-0)

Championship probabilities
8.8% Region 10 champ
0.5% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 118.2 (3-1, #142, D3 #26) 90% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home, proj. #4
W3: 115.3 (2-1, #167, D3 #32) 75% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home, proj. #6
W2: 110.3 (1-1, #216, D3 #46) 37% (need 6-4), 8% home, proj. out
W1: 111.4 (1-0, #210, D3 #43) 40% (need 6-4), 14% home, proj. out
W0: 102.0 (0-0, #371, D3 #77) 6% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 96.2 (0-10)