Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#186 Van Wert (3-2) 113.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#19 of 106 in Division IV
#5 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-7 H #310 Bryan (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 12-42 A #91 Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 17 (80%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-38 H #59 St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 18 (83%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 40-34 A #265 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 39-6 H #330 Lima Shawnee (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #98 Kenton (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #252 Elida (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #529 Lima Bath (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #140 Celina (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #274 Defiance (3-2 D3 R10), pick: W by 7 (66%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules
Playoff streaks & droughts
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#9 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
14.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-7%, 5W-26%, 6W-40%, 7W-22%, 8W-4%

Playoff chance
29% now (need 7-3), 4% home
66% with a win in next game, and 16% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 11.20 (8.80-16.90) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.10 (11.45-19.05) 13% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 17.35 (15.05-21.55) 87% in, 5% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
8W: 20.95 (19.60-22.85) 100% in, 73% home, proj. #4 (#2-#6)

Best realistic scenario
4.0% WWWWW 20.95 pts, 100% in, 73% home (#4, range #2-#6) Orange 24%

Worst realistic scenario
5.1% LLWLL 8.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% LWWLW 13.35 pts, 3% in (out, range #6-out) Clear Fork 52%
11% LWWWW 17.00 pts, 80% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Clear Fork 37%
10% LLWLW 11.10 pts, out
9.3% LWWLL 10.70 pts, out
7.3% WWWLW 17.30 pts, 91% in, 3% home (#7, range #3-out) St Marys Memorial 28%
5.9% LLWWW 14.75 pts, 16% in (out, range #6-out) St Marys Memorial 46%
(27% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23) over Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)
Week 10: Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17) over Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14)
Week 7: Celina (4-1 D3 R12) over Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12)
Week 9: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Shelby (3-2 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
26% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
26% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
13% Huron (4-1)
12% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
7% Kenton (3-2)

Championship probabilities
0.8% Region 14 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 112.3 (2-2, #202, D4 #22) 20% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 109.7 (1-2, #227, D4 #28) 7% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 109.3 (1-1, #232, D4 #27) 17% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 110.0 (1-0, #223, D4 #27) 33% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
W0: 106.1 (0-0, #296, D4 #40) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 109.6 (5-5)