Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#491 Vermilion (2-3) 89.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#81 of 106 in Division IV
#24 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 56-13 A #576 Oberlin (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 56-13 H #622 Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 19 (84%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 19-21 H #475 Oberlin Firelands (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-38 H #369 Sandusky Perkins (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-43 A #142 Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #236 Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #284 Port Clinton (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #183 Huron (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #230 Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #267 Shelby (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#82 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 3-7
6.35 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-49%, 3W-38%, 4W-11%, 5W-2%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 12.45 (10.13-15.58) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WLLLW 9.73 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
49% LLLLL 3.27 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
11% LLLLW 6.30 pts, out
8.5% LWLLL 5.64 pts, out
8.4% WLLLL 6.70 pts, out
6.3% LLLWL 6.15 pts, out
3.9% LLWLL 7.31 pts, out
(11% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 93.0 (2-2, #458, D4 #70) 1% , proj. out
W3: 98.6 (2-1, #391, D4 #58) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 99.6 (2-0, #372, D4 #55) 11% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 99.7 (1-0, #373, D4 #51) 13% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 99.2 (0-0, #401, D4 #62) 7% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 104.1 (5-5)