Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#455 Cadiz Harrison Central (1-4) 93.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#72 of 106 in Division IV
#13 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-40 A #308 Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 9 (66%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 25-26 H Bell DC (2-0 D3)
Sep 08 (W3) L 7-14 A #318 Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19), pick: L by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 28-7 A #522 Belmont Union Local (3-2 D5 R19), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 26-55 H #260 Martins Ferry (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #119 St Clairsville (5-0 D4 R15), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #419 Lucas (3-2 D7 R27), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 12 (W8) A Oak Glen WV, [W by 17, 83%]
Oct 19 (W9) H #523 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #659 Rayland Buckeye Local (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 26 (94%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#62 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 96
Projected record 4-6
8.05 Harbin points (divisor 96)
Projected out of R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-5%, 3W-26%, 4W-45%, 5W-22%, 6W-1%

Playoff chance
4% now (need 6-4), 1% home
43% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 8.05 (5.76-12.99) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 10.64 (7.82-15.74) 13% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 15.30 (13.53-17.80) 95% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
19% LWWWW 10.48 pts, 7% in (out, range #6-out) St Clairsville 74%

Worst realistic scenario
3.7% LLLLW 3.19 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
28% LLWWW 7.94 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
13% LLWLW 5.36 pts, out
8.7% LWWLW 7.74 pts, out
7.3% LLLWW 5.72 pts, out
4.6% LWLWW 8.11 pts, out
2.3% LLWWL 7.39 pts, out
(13% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Belmont Union Local (3-2 D5 R19) over Barnesville (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 7: Oak Glen WV (2-3 D4) over Vincent Warren (0-5 D3 R11)
Week 9: Granville (4-1 D3 R11) over Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 9: Oak Glen WV (2-3 D4) over
Week 8: Zanesville Maysville (2-3 D3 R11) over Duncan Falls Philo (3-2 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
48% St Clairsville (5-0)
27% Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0)
13% Chillicothe Unioto (4-1)
6% Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1)
4% Bloom-Carroll (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 95.8 (1-3, #424, D4 #65) 16% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 90.1 (0-3, #494, D4 #82) 3% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 89.4 (0-2, #505, D4 #81) 4% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 88.9 (0-1, #508, D4 #79) 20% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 94.9 (0-0, #478, D4 #79) 37% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home, proj. out
Last year 91.4 (5-5)