Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#353 Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3) 100.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#51 of 106 in Division IV
#17 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 38-6 A #593 Uhrichsville Claymont (0-5 D4 R15), pick: L by 8 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 16-3 H #381 Canton South (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 20-21 H #232 New Philadelphia (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-55 A #223 Orrville (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 24-41 H #172 Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #442 Wooster Triway (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #197 Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #468 Navarre Fairless (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #401 Massillon Tuslaw (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #363 Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 1 (51%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#32 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
9.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-13%, 4W-31%, 5W-34%, 6W-17%, 7W-3%

Playoff chance
2% now (bubble if 7-3)
2% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.45 (7.10-13.40) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.80 (9.65-15.00) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 14.60 (12.75-17.30) 34% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.0% WWWWW 14.60 pts, 34% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 46%

Worst realistic scenario
2.1% LLLLL 3.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
8.8% WLWWL 8.95 pts, out
7.7% WLWWW 11.15 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
7.6% WLWLL 6.85 pts, out
7.0% WLWLW 9.05 pts, out
5.8% LLWWL 6.85 pts, out
5.5% LLWWW 9.35 pts, out
(53% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Weir WV (4-1 D4) over East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
46% Steubenville (4-1)
32% Poland Seminary (5-0)
12% Perry (4-1)
8% Hubbard (5-0)
1% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.2 (2-2, #388, D4 #58) 1% , proj. out
W3: 101.9 (2-1, #336, D4 #47) 8% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 107.0 (2-0, #267, D4 #33) 37% (need 8-2), 10% home, proj. out
W1: 106.8 (1-0, #275, D4 #35) 31% (need 8-2), 8% home, proj. out
W0: 100.1 (0-0, #392, D4 #58) 9% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 97.6 (3-7)