Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#381 Canton South (2-3) 98.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#53 of 106 in Division IV
#18 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 23-24 H #395 Lodi Cloverleaf (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 3-16 A #353 Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13), pick: L by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 3-32 H #172 Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 35-0 H #589 Minerva (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 12 (74%)
Sep 22 (W5) W 26-14 H #338 Salem (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #177 Alliance (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #245 Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 17 (85%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #97 Alliance Marlington (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #243 Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #359 Lexington (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 10 (73%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#55 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-22%, 3W-43%, 4W-26%, 5W-8%

Playoff chance
1% now
5% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 12.65 (10.10-16.50) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.4% LWLWW 12.30 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
22% LLLLL 4.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
18% LLLLW 5.70 pts, out
11% LLLWL 7.10 pts, out
8.1% LWLLL 7.05 pts, out
7.5% LLLWW 9.25 pts, out
5.8% LWLLW 9.20 pts, out
4.0% WLLLL 7.05 pts, out
(22% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
40% Steubenville (4-1)
30% Poland Seminary (5-0)
14% Hubbard (5-0)
11% Perry (4-1)
5% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 92.1 (1-3, #475, D4 #76) 1% , proj. out
W3: 91.4 (0-3, #477, D4 #77) out
W2: 95.3 (0-2, #429, D4 #63) 1% , proj. out
W1: 97.2 (0-1, #401, D4 #56) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 104.6 (0-0, #321, D4 #46) 19% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
Last year 107.9 (6-4)