Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#243 Carrollton (3-2) 109.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#34 of 106 in Division IV
#11 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-31 A #119 St Clairsville (5-0 D4 R15), pick: L by 10 (68%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 12-7 H #335 Akron Coventry (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 14 (77%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 41-7 H #454 Cambridge (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 12 (73%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 7-0 A #338 Salem (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-7 A #97 Alliance Marlington (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 14 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #245 Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #211 Canton Central Catholic (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #177 Alliance (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #381 Canton South (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #589 Minerva (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 29 (96%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#13 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
14.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #8 seed in R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-5%, 5W-24%, 6W-39%, 7W-26%, 8W-6%

Playoff chance
41% now (bubble if 6-4), 2% home
62% with a win in next game, and 16% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.25 (6.60-13.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.45 (8.35-15.90) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.15 (10.00-18.95) 33% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 16.80 (13.10-20.60) 84% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 19.45 (16.55-22.70) 100% in, 21% home, proj. #5 (#2-#8)

Best realistic scenario
5.7% WWWWW 19.45 pts, 100% in, 21% home (#5, range #2-#8) Perry 25%

Worst realistic scenario
4.5% LLLLW 9.15 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
13% WLLWW 14.35 pts, 38% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 42%
12% WWLWW 16.40 pts, 80% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Steubenville 30%
11% LLLWW 10.85 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
9.3% LWLWW 13.00 pts, 11% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 45%
6.6% WLWWW 17.50 pts, 96% in, 4% home (#6, range #3-out) Perry 24%
5.4% WWLLW 14.50 pts, 39% in (out, range #6-out) Steubenville 42%
(33% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Weir WV (4-1 D4) over East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 7: Akron Coventry (3-2 D3 R9) over Streetsboro (2-3 D4 R13)
Week 10: Akron East (4-1 D3 R9) over Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 8: Akron Coventry (3-2 D3 R9) over Peninsula Woodridge (1-4 D4 R13)
Week 9: Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17) over Girard (4-1 D4 R13)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% Steubenville (4-1)
25% Poland Seminary (5-0)
19% Perry (4-1)
16% Hubbard (5-0)
8% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 110.3 (3-1, #219, D4 #27) 50% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home, proj. out
W3: 106.4 (2-1, #280, D4 #36) 16% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W2: 104.5 (1-1, #307, D4 #43) 13% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 97.0 (0-1, #405, D4 #58) 1% , proj. out
W0: 102.4 (0-0, #360, D4 #53) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 102.3 (3-7)