Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#235 Duncan Falls Philo (3-2) 109.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#30 of 106 in Division IV
#5 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 16-21 A #263 West Jefferson (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 47-0 H #592 Crooksville (1-4 D6 R23), pick: W by 29 (93%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 59-0 H #683 Zanesville West Muskingum (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 30 (95%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 15-13 A #249 New Concord John Glenn (2-3 D4 R15), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-28 H #66 Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #84 Thornville Sheridan (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 17 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #484 Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #367 Zanesville Maysville (2-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #607 McConnelsville Morgan (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #403 New Lexington (4-1 D4 R15), pick: W by 10 (72%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#46 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
14.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-1%, 5W-10%, 6W-36%, 7W-46%, 8W-8%

Playoff chance
63% now (bubble if 6-4), 6% home
97% with a win in next game, and 56% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.10 (6.60-13.85) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.50 (9.40-17.15) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 14.20 (12.70-19.55) 92% in, 3% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 18.80 (17.25-20.95) 100% in, 64% home, proj. #4 (#2-#7)

Best realistic scenario
8.0% WWWWW 18.80 pts, 100% in, 64% home (#4, range #2-#7) Gallia Academy 28%

Worst realistic scenario
5.0% LWLWL 8.50 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
38% LWWWW 14.05 pts, 90% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Indian Valley 37%
17% LWLWW 11.35 pts, 32% in (out, range #5-out) St Clairsville 65%
9.8% LWWWL 11.00 pts, 17% in (out, range #6-out) St Clairsville 72%
5.2% LLWWW 12.35 pts, 62% in (#8, range #5-out) St Clairsville 58%
3.6% WWLWW 16.10 pts, 99% in, 9% home (#6, range #3-out) Unioto 27%
2.3% WWWWL 15.85 pts, 99% in, 9% home (#6, range #3-out) Unioto 25%
(11% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Granville (4-1 D3 R11) over Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 8: Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19) over Cambridge (1-4 D4 R15)
Week 7: Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 6: Crooksville (1-4 D6 R23) over Vincent Warren (0-5 D3 R11)
Week 10: Pataskala Licking Heights (4-1 D2 R7) over Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% St Clairsville (5-0)
28% Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0)
18% Chillicothe Unioto (4-1)
12% Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1)
7% Bloom-Carroll (4-1)

Championship probabilities
3.4% Region 15 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 107.6 (3-1, #262, D4 #35) 54% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home, proj. out
W3: 105.2 (2-1, #297, D4 #39) 26% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 105.1 (1-1, #296, D4 #41) 17% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 108.4 (0-1, #241, D4 #31) 28% (need 7-3), 7% home, proj. out
W0: 115.1 (0-0, #187, D4 #17) 52% (need 7-3), 26% home, proj. #5
Last year 121.3 (9-4)