Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#410 East Liverpool (3-2) 97.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#59 of 106 in Division IV
#19 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-7 H #326 Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23), pick: L by 17 (78%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 20-26 A #319 Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-28 A #338 Salem (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 16 (81%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 48-7 H #510 East Liverpool Beaver Local (2-3 D4 R13), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 47-21 A Oak Glen WV (2-3 D4)
Sep 28 (W6) H #260 Martins Ferry (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #501 Richmond Edison (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #659 Rayland Buckeye Local (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) H Weir WV, [W by 6, 64%]
Oct 26 (W10) H #523 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 12 (76%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#72 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
14.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-3%, 5W-19%, 6W-39%, 7W-31%, 8W-7%

Playoff chance
58% now (bubble if 6-4), 5% home
83% with a win in next game, and 47% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.00 (7.25-14.20) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.55 (8.70-16.15) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.70 (11.75-19.80) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 17.90 (14.60-23.05) 97% in, 6% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
8W: 21.20 (18.60-23.85) 100% in, 45% home, proj. #5 (#2-#8)

Best realistic scenario
7.4% WWWWW 21.20 pts, 100% in, 45% home (#5, range #2-#8) Hubbard 28%

Worst realistic scenario
2.5% LLWLL 8.65 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
18% LWWWW 17.85 pts, 97% in, 4% home (#6, range #3-out) Perry 25%
15% LWWLW 13.80 pts, 30% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 45%
9.5% LLWWW 15.25 pts, 62% in (#8, range #5-out) Steubenville 34%
8.2% LLWLW 11.15 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
6.5% WWWLW 17.30 pts, 95% in, 2% home (#7, range #4-out) Poland Seminary 24%
5.7% LWWWL 15.30 pts, 63% in (#8, range #5-out) Steubenville 40%
(28% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Martins Ferry (4-1 D5 R19) over Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 6: Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9) over Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 9: Oak Glen WV (2-3 D4) over
Week 10: Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21) over Girard (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 8: Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23) over Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Steubenville (4-1)
21% Poland Seminary (5-0)
21% Perry (4-1)
20% Hubbard (5-0)
11% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.8 (2-2, #379, D4 #55) 49% (need 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
W3: 92.8 (1-2, #459, D4 #72) 21% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 94.8 (1-1, #434, D4 #66) 34% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home, proj. out
W1: 94.4 (1-0, #449, D4 #68) 32% (need 8-2), 9% home, proj. out
W0: 87.0 (0-0, #554, D4 #93) 7% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 84.9 (3-7)