Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#510 East Liverpool Beaver Local (2-3) 88.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#84 of 106 in Division IV
#23 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 35-6 A #605 Wellsville (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 12 (72%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-50 H #245 Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 13-12 H #520 Sarahsville Shenandoah (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-48 A #410 East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-14 A #501 Richmond Edison (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #318 Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19), pick: L by 11 (73%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #659 Rayland Buckeye Local (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #319 Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #260 Martins Ferry (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 26 (W10) A Oak Glen WV, [W by 13, 77%]

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#92 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-2%, 3W-20%, 4W-47%, 5W-25%, 6W-5%

Playoff chance
1% now
4% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.10 (7.25-14.95) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.45 (10.70-18.05) 11% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.5% WWWLW 13.40 pts, 11% in (out, range #6-out) Steubenville 67%

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LLLLL 3.75 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
34% LWLLW 6.60 pts, out
14% LWLLL 4.25 pts, out
9.1% LWWLW 9.75 pts, out
9.0% WWLLW 10.20 pts, out
4.5% LLLLW 6.10 pts, out
4.2% LWLWW 9.90 pts, out
(20% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
45% Steubenville (4-1)
27% Poland Seminary (5-0)
17% Hubbard (5-0)
8% Perry (4-1)
3% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 91.8 (2-2, #477, D4 #77) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 94.6 (2-1, #437, D4 #68) 14% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 92.8 (1-1, #461, D4 #72) 6% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 95.8 (1-0, #426, D4 #63) 18% (bubble if 8-2), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 95.1 (0-0, #471, D4 #76) 17% (bubble if 8-2), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 95.7 (7-3)