Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#162 Millersburg West Holmes (7-2) 116.1

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#30 of 107 in Division III
#13 of 28 in Region 9
Eitel team page
Region 9 projections
Region 9 playoff probabilities
Region 9 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 48-14 A #495 Wooster Triway (2-7 D5 R17), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 35-7 H #344 Massillon Tuslaw (5-4 D5 R17), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 31-27 A #242 Bellevue (3-6 D4 R14), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 35-20 H #261 Mansfield (4-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 68-13 H #545 Mansfield Madison Comprehensive (1-8 D3 R10), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 20-47 A #84 Wooster (7-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 33-34 A #228 Lexington (5-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 30-8 H #233 Beloit West Branch (6-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 56-49 H #205 Ashland (5-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #357 Mount Vernon (3-6 D2 R7), pick: W by 14 (81%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#55 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
20.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R9 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-19%, 8W-81%

Playoff chance
63% now (need 8-2), 1% home
78% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 18.60 (17.65-20.20) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 20.95 (20.00-22.55) 78% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)

Playoff scenarios
81% W 20.95 pts, 78% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Kenston 44%
19% L 18.60 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Beloit West Branch (6-3 D3 R9) over Salem (5-4 D4 R13)
Week 10: Alliance Marlington (8-1 D3 R9) over Alliance (6-3 D3 R9)
Week 10: Massillon Tuslaw (5-4 D5 R17) over Navarre Fairless (3-6 D5 R17)
Week 10: Bellevue (3-6 D4 R14) over Clyde (7-2 D3 R10)
Week 10: Akron Manchester (7-2 D5 R17) over Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (6-3 D4 R13)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
44% Chagrin Falls Kenston (8-1)
31% Canfield (8-1)
17% Akron East (8-1)
4% Alliance Marlington (8-1)
3% Medina Buckeye (8-1)

Championship probabilities
0.8% Region 9 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 116.1 (7-2, #162, D3 #30) 63% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. #7
W8: 114.5 (6-2, #178, D3 #38) 29% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W7: 110.9 (5-2, #224, D3 #50) 16% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 112.8 (5-1, #195, D3 #41) 21% (bubble if 8-2), 4% home, proj. out
W5: 118.5 (5-0, #141, D3 #25) 71% (bubble if 8-2), 34% home, proj. #7
W4: 119.7 (4-0, #127, D3 #23) 83% (need 8-2), 51% home, proj. #3
W3: 115.2 (3-0, #168, D3 #33) 56% (need 8-2), 25% home, proj. #6
W2: 112.9 (2-0, #190, D3 #40) 41% (bubble if 7-3), 18% home, proj. out
W1: 108.2 (1-0, #246, D3 #54) 30% (need 7-3), 11% home, proj. out
W0: 105.2 (0-0, #311, D3 #69) 8% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 103.3 (3-7)