Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#249 New Concord John Glenn (2-3) 107.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#35 of 106 in Division IV
#6 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 26-32 H #307 Byesville Meadowbrook (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 12 (72%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 45-7 A #454 Cambridge (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-37 A #84 Thornville Sheridan (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 15 (78%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 13-15 H #235 Duncan Falls Philo (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 34-7 A #367 Zanesville Maysville (2-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #683 Zanesville West Muskingum (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #607 McConnelsville Morgan (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #66 Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 22 (91%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #403 New Lexington (4-1 D4 R15), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #592 Crooksville (1-4 D6 R23), pick: W by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#19 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
10.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-3%, 5W-30%, 6W-58%, 7W-9%

Playoff chance
21% now (need 7-3), 1% home
21% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.15 (6.15-13.85) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 10.95 (8.95-17.10) 21% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 15.75 (13.70-18.15) 97% in, 10% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
9.3% WWWWW 15.75 pts, 97% in, 10% home (#6, range #3-out) Indian Valley 26%

Worst realistic scenario
24% WWLLW 8.05 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
54% WWLWW 10.90 pts, 17% in (out, range #5-out) St Clairsville 69%
3.9% WWWLW 12.90 pts, 51% in (#8, range #5-out) St Clairsville 53%
2.5% WLLWW 9.95 pts, 4% in (out, range #8-out)
2.3% WWLWL 9.35 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
(4% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Zanesville Maysville (2-3 D3 R11) over Duncan Falls Philo (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 8: Cambridge (1-4 D4 R15) over Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19)
Week 9: Granville (4-1 D3 R11) over Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 7: Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 8: Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
41% St Clairsville (5-0)
25% Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0)
14% Chillicothe Unioto (4-1)
8% Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1)
6% Bloom-Carroll (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 103.0 (1-3, #327, D4 #45) 8% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 106.0 (1-2, #288, D4 #38) 23% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 109.4 (1-1, #228, D4 #26) 32% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W1: 106.8 (0-1, #276, D4 #36) 24% (need 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
W0: 115.8 (0-0, #175, D4 #16) 62% (need 7-3), 35% home, proj. #4
Last year 127.2 (11-3)