Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#212 Newark Licking Valley (3-2) 111.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#24 of 106 in Division IV
#4 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-36 H #84 Thornville Sheridan (5-0 D3 R11), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 50-6 H #375 Heath (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 9-10 A #154 Johnstown-Monroe (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 45-0 H #537 Utica (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 56-8 A #582 Johnstown Northridge (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #617 Hebron Lakewood (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 29 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #355 Pataskala Watkins Memorial (2-3 D2 R7), pick: W by 10 (71%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #385 Newark Catholic (1-4 D6 R23), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #150 Granville (4-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #123 Pataskala Licking Heights (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 12 (76%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#43 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 6-4
11.54 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #8 seed in R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-3%, 5W-19%, 6W-41%, 7W-31%, 8W-6%

Playoff chance
55% now (bubble if 6-4), 8% home
55% with a win in next game, and 52% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 8.86 (7.91-14.77) 5% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.54 (10.48-17.29) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 15.47 (14.36-19.71) 99% in, 8% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
8W: 19.71 (19.05-20.87) 100% in, 82% home, proj. #4 (#2-#6)

Best realistic scenario
6.3% WWWWW 19.71 pts, 100% in, 82% home (#4, range #2-#6) Bloom-Carroll 25%

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% WLLLL 6.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% WWWLL 10.98 pts, 17% in (out, range #6-out) St Clairsville 72%
16% WWWWL 15.42 pts, 98% in, 3% home (#6, range #3-out) Unioto 28%
9.8% WWWLW 15.34 pts, 99% in, 5% home (#6, range #3-out) Unioto 29%
7.6% WWLLL 8.91 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
7.5% WLWLL 8.56 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.2% WWLWL 13.40 pts, 79% in (#8, range #5-out) St Clairsville 43%
(21% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 8: Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 6: Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 8: Portsmouth (3-2 D5 R20) over Proctorville Fairland (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 9: Garfield Heights Trinity (2-3 D6 R21) over Louisville St Thomas Aquinas (1-4 D7 R25)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0)
22% Chillicothe Unioto (4-1)
20% St Clairsville (5-0)
15% Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1)
11% Bloom-Carroll (4-1)

Championship probabilities
3.8% Region 15 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 111.0 (2-2, #210, D4 #24) 50% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. #8
W3: 112.2 (1-2, #198, D4 #19) 52% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
W2: 113.0 (1-1, #187, D4 #20) 59% (need 7-3), 15% home, proj. #7
W1: 110.0 (0-1, #225, D4 #28) 47% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home, proj. #7
W0: 118.3 (0-0, #145, D4 #14) 78% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home, proj. #3
Last year 124.3 (11-1)