Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#338 Salem (3-2) 102.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#48 of 106 in Division IV
#15 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 38-21 A #504 East Palestine (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 22-0 A #470 Hanoverton United (3-2 D6 R21), pick: W by 10 (69%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 28-14 H #410 East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 16 (81%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-7 H #243 Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 22 (W5) L 14-26 A #381 Canton South (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #97 Alliance Marlington (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #177 Alliance (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #589 Minerva (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 26 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #565 Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 27 (W10) A #245 Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 1 (53%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#67 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
10.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-9%, 5W-43%, 6W-37%, 7W-10%, 8W-1%

Playoff chance
17% now (need 7-3), 1% home
61% with a win in next game, and 10% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.35 (7.20-17.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.50 (10.25-19.25) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 17.10 (13.00-22.00) 87% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.5% WLWWW 18.00 pts, 97% in, 3% home (#6, range #3-out) Perry 29%

Worst realistic scenario
3.9% LLWLL 8.95 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
34% LLWWL 10.10 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
17% LLWWW 13.40 pts, 13% in (out, range #6-out) Steubenville 47%
13% LWWWL 13.15 pts, 9% in (out, range #6-out) Steubenville 47%
5.8% LWWWW 16.55 pts, 80% in, 1% home (#7, range #3-out) Steubenville 30%
5.0% WLWWL 14.60 pts, 30% in (out, range #6-out) Steubenville 44%
4.3% LLLWL 9.45 pts, out
(15% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9) over Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 9: Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17) over Girard (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 10: Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1) over Youngstown Cardinal Mooney (2-3 D4 R13)
Week 10: Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21) over Girard (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 10: Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5 D2 R5) over Akron North (0-5 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
31% Steubenville (4-1)
27% Poland Seminary (5-0)
17% Perry (4-1)
15% Hubbard (5-0)
7% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.3 (3-1, #251, D4 #32) 44% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home, proj. #7
W3: 110.1 (3-0, #224, D4 #27) 65% (bubble if 7-3), 24% home, proj. #6
W2: 109.6 (2-0, #226, D4 #25) 60% (bubble if 7-3), 26% home, proj. #8
W1: 107.7 (1-0, #257, D4 #33) 49% (bubble if 7-3), 20% home, proj. #6
W0: 105.7 (0-0, #302, D4 #41) 34% (need 7-3), 12% home, proj. #8
Last year 109.1 (7-4)