Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#219 Struthers (3-2) 110.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#26 of 106 in Division IV
#8 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-6 H #271 Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 8 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 22-36 A #259 Columbiana Crestview (3-2 D5 R17), pick: W by 17 (80%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 49-28 H #382 Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9), pick: W by 17 (82%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 48-15 A #595 Jefferson Area (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-17 H #41 Canfield (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #60 Poland Seminary (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #599 Campbell Memorial (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #94 Hubbard (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #585 Ashtabula Edgewood (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #439 Cortland Lakeview (1-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 10 (73%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#28 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 6-4
12.04 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-1%, 5W-14%, 6W-60%, 7W-23%, 8W-2%

Playoff chance
25% now (need 7-3), 2% home
80% with a win in next game, and 18% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.77 (7.80-14.62) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.04 (9.87-17.90) 6% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 16.68 (14.46-21.58) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 21.63 (19.20-23.70) 100% in, 74% home, proj. #4 (#2-#6)

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WWWWW 21.63 pts, 100% in, 74% home (#4, range #2-#6) Hubbard 24%

Worst realistic scenario
11% LWLWL 9.57 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
55% LWLWW 11.84 pts, 3% in (out, range #6-out) Steubenville 53%
15% LWWWW 16.68 pts, 85% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Steubenville 27%
7.6% WWLWW 16.58 pts, 84% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Steubenville 26%
2.5% LWWWL 14.42 pts, 33% in (out, range #5-out) Poland Seminary 37%
2.0% LWLLW 10.03 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21) over Girard (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 6: Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21) over Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17)
Week 9: Weir WV (4-1 D4) over East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 10: Akron East (4-1 D3 R9) over Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 8: Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9) over Warren Howland (0-5 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
27% Steubenville (4-1)
25% Poland Seminary (5-0)
21% Perry (4-1)
14% Hubbard (5-0)
9% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 109.3 (3-1, #235, D4 #29) 24% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 108.3 (2-1, #253, D4 #31) 19% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 109.7 (1-1, #224, D4 #24) 27% (need 7-3), 9% home, proj. out
W1: 115.0 (1-0, #159, D4 #15) 45% (need 8-2), 20% home, proj. out
W0: 112.7 (0-0, #215, D4 #24) 37% (need 7-3), 14% home, proj. out
Last year 114.9 (7-4)