Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#593 Uhrichsville Claymont (0-5) 79.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#98 of 106 in Division IV
#23 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-38 H #353 Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 8 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-42 A #484 Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-21 A #489 Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 18-54 A #506 Lore City Buckeye Trail (3-2 D6 R23), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 8-42 H #316 Magnolia Sandy Valley (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 24 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #308 Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #514 Zoarville Tuscarawas Valley (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #685 Newcomerstown (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #301 West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 25 (W10) H #103 Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0 D4 R15), pick: L by 34 (98%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#81 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
0.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-10%, 1W-56%, 2W-29%, 3W-4%

Best realistic scenario
3.2% LLWWL 4.15 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
10% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
51% LLWLL 0.40 pts, out
21% LWWLL 2.05 pts, out
4.5% WLWLL 3.72 pts, out
4.2% LWLLL 1.65 pts, out
(7% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 79.7 (0-4, #587, D4 #99) 1% , proj. out
W3: 83.9 (0-3, #559, D4 #93) 1% , proj. out
W2: 91.7 (0-2, #482, D4 #76) 2% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 95.7 (0-1, #430, D4 #64) 16% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 106.3 (0-0, #292, D4 #39) 46% (bubble if 7-3), 18% home, proj. out
Last year 110.8 (8-2)