Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#489 Warsaw River View (3-2) 90.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#80 of 106 in Division IV
#17 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 30-13 A #582 Johnstown Northridge (1-4 D5 R19), pick: L by 15 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 3-42 A #308 Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 18 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-7 H #593 Uhrichsville Claymont (0-5 D4 R15), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-34 A #233 Zanesville (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 20 (87%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 14-13 H #553 Barnesville (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #589 Minerva (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 11 (75%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #366 Marietta (2-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #307 Byesville Meadowbrook (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #454 Cambridge (1-4 D4 R15), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #484 Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19), pick: L by 4 (58%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#88 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
6.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-4%, 4W-24%, 5W-39%, 6W-25%, 7W-7%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 8.50 (5.60-12.85) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 10.50 (7.65-13.80) 9% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.6% WWLWW 10.20 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
4.4% LLLLL 4.25 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WLLLL 4.80 pts, out
11% WLLLW 6.25 pts, out
11% WLLWL 6.35 pts, out
9.5% WLLWW 7.80 pts, out
4.9% WWLLL 6.95 pts, out
3.9% WWLLW 8.65 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(37% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
63% St Clairsville (5-0)
24% Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0)
12% Chillicothe Unioto (4-1)
2% Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 89.3 (2-2, #498, D4 #81) 2% , proj. out
W3: 90.4 (2-1, #491, D4 #81) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 86.8 (1-1, #530, D4 #85) 1% , proj. out
W1: 88.2 (1-0, #516, D4 #84) 5% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 79.5 (0-0, #622, D4 #104) 1% , proj. out
Last year 76.6 (0-10)