Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#200 Wintersville Indian Creek (7-2) 112.3

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#24 of 107 in Division IV
#11 of 28 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 35-28 H #392 Cambridge (3-6 D4 R15), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 26-20 H #370 East Liverpool (5-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 13-26 A #157 Alliance (6-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 36-12 A #671 Rayland Buckeye Local (0-9 D5 R19), pick: W by 26 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-14 H #123 St Clairsville (9-0 D4 R15), pick: L by 17 (83%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 52-6 A Brooke WV (0-8 D3)
Oct 05 (W7) W 22-0 A #306 Martins Ferry (6-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 35-0 A #515 East Liverpool Beaver Local (3-6 D4 R13), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 21-12 H #245 Columbiana Crestview (5-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Oct 25 (W10) H #524 Richmond Edison (4-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 26 (94%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#57 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 8-2
17.32 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected #5 seed in R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-5%, 8W-95%

Playoff chance
97% now (bubble if 7-3), 11% home
99% with a win in next game, and 41% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 15.19 (13.81-17.18) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 17.32 (15.94-19.31) 99% in, 11% home, proj. #5 (#4-out)

Playoff scenarios
95% W 17.32 pts, 99% in, 11% home (#5, range #4-out) Girard 47%
4.8% L 15.19 pts, 41% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Perry 29%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Youngstown Liberty (7-2 D6 R21) over Girard (8-1 D4 R13)
Week 10: Hubbard (9-0 D4 R13) over Youngstown East (6-3 D4 R13)
Week 10: Canfield (8-1 D3 R9) over Poland Seminary (6-3 D4 R13)
Week 10: East Liverpool Beaver Local (3-6 D4 R13) over Oak Glen WV (5-4 D4)
Week 10: Columbiana Crestview (5-3 D5 R17) over Linsly WV (4-3 D6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
46% Girard (8-1)
17% Hubbard (9-0)
15% Steubenville (8-1)
6% Youngstown East (6-3)
4% Perry (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 112.3 (7-2, #200, D4 #24) 97% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. #5
W8: 109.4 (6-2, #244, D4 #31) 58% (need 8-2), 6% home, proj. #8
W7: 108.5 (5-2, #250, D4 #35) 59% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home, proj. #7
W6: 103.6 (4-2, #322, D4 #45) 20% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 103.8 (3-2, #320, D4 #44) 31% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W4: 102.5 (3-1, #334, D4 #47) 29% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. #8
W3: 99.9 (2-1, #365, D4 #53) 24% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 103.4 (2-0, #325, D4 #46) 59% (need 7-3), 25% home, proj. #6
W1: 104.0 (1-0, #304, D4 #40) 51% (bubble if 7-3), 20% home, proj. #8
W0: 103.3 (0-0, #343, D4 #49) 43% (need 7-3), 16% home, proj. out
Last year 104.3 (6-4)