Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#143 Chillicothe (4-1) 118.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#43 of 108 in Division II
#12 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-13 H #164 Ashville Teays Valley (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 7 (63%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 56-14 A #384 Columbus Mifflin (1-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 14 (77%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 27-6 H #355 Pataskala Watkins Memorial (2-3 D2 R7), pick: W by 22 (88%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 10-49 A #43 Columbus Bishop Hartley (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 7-6 A #332 Logan (1-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 20 (87%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #227 Hillsboro (5-0 D3 R11), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #625 Greenfield McClain (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 35 (98%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #474 Washington Court House Miami Trace (2-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #234 Washington Court House Washington (4-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #258 Jackson (3-2 D3 R11), pick: W by 16 (83%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#71 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
22.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-3%, 7W-19%, 8W-44%, 9W-34%

Playoff chance
84% now (bubble if 7-3), 36% home
95% with a win in next game, and 62% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 15.35 (11.60-19.50) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 19.20 (15.25-25.15) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 22.95 (19.25-27.75) 97% in, 16% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
9W: 27.00 (24.05-30.30) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
34% WWWWW 27.00 pts, 100% in, 86% home (#3, range #1-#7) La Salle 15%

Worst realistic scenario
2.1% LWWLL 15.15 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
18% LWWWW 22.50 pts, 95% in, 10% home (#6, range #2-out) Kings 18%
13% WWWLW 22.90 pts, 97% in, 14% home (#6, range #2-out) Troy 19%
10% WWWWL 23.50 pts, 99% in, 22% home (#5, range #2-out) Troy 18%
6.7% LWWLW 18.40 pts, 22% in (out, range #5-out) Kings 46%
5.9% LWWWL 19.00 pts, 38% in (out, range #5-out) Kings 42%
4.2% WWWLL 19.45 pts, 48% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Kings 46%
(6% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN (6-0 D4) over Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 9: Columbus Mifflin (1-4 D2 R7) over Columbus Centennial (3-2 D3 R11)
Week 7: Cincinnati St Xavier (2-3 D1 R4) over Cincinnati La Salle (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 10: Cincinnati Elder (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati La Salle (4-1 D2 R8)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
16% Troy (4-1)
14% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
14% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
13% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
11% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)

Championship probabilities
1.0% Region 8 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 121.3 (3-1, #112, D2 #32) 90% (bubble if 7-3), 46% home, proj. #5
W3: 119.3 (3-0, #125, D2 #34) 83% (bubble if 7-3), 35% home, proj. #7
W2: 121.3 (2-0, #103, D2 #28) 88% (bubble if 7-3), 50% home, proj. #5
W1: 118.9 (1-0, #124, D2 #36) 83% (need 7-3), 46% home, proj. #2
W0: 119.3 (0-0, #127, D2 #36) 62% (bubble if 7-3), 26% home, proj. #8
Last year 121.9 (8-3)