Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#412 Cincinnati Archbishop McNicholas (1-8) 96.8

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#85 of 107 in Division III
#20 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-21 H #257 Goshen (6-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 10 (68%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 14-7 A #554 Norwood (2-7 D4 R16), pick: W by 17 (81%)
Sep 06 (W3) L 0-44 A #173 Cincinnati Taft (7-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 13 (75%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 28-37 A #220 Dayton Carroll (6-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 13-21 H #381 Cincinnati Purcell Marian (4-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 2 (53%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 26-57 H #77 Franklin Bishop Fenwick (7-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 27-41 H #292 St Bernard Roger Bacon (3-6 D4 R16), pick: L by 11 (75%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 14-20 A #163 Dayton Chaminade Julienne (7-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 26 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 0-42 H #42 Kettering Archbishop Alter (8-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 30 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #146 Hamilton Badin (6-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 23 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#30 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 1-9
1.76 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-92%, 2W-8%

Playoff scenarios
7.5% W 5.54 pts, out
93% L 1.76 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 96.8 (1-8, #412, D3 #85) out
W8: 97.3 (1-7, #408, D3 #82) out
W7: 95.6 (1-6, #428, D3 #86) out
W6: 95.8 (1-5, #423, D3 #85) out
W5: 95.4 (1-4, #436, D3 #85) 1% , proj. out
W4: 97.2 (1-3, #401, D3 #81) 1% , proj. out
W3: 96.7 (1-2, #407, D3 #83) 1% , proj. out
W2: 99.8 (1-1, #367, D3 #76) 4% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 107.4 (0-1, #262, D3 #58) 21% (need 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 117.8 (0-0, #150, D3 #27) 65% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home, proj. #4
Last year 118.4 (6-4)