Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#194 Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1) 112.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#20 of 106 in Division IV
#6 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 45-12 H #261 New Richmond (4-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 47-21 A #341 Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy (2-2 D5 R20), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 17-26 H #422 Cincinnati Aiken (3-2 D4 R16), pick: W by 30 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 30-7 H #329 Cincinnati Madeira (3-2 D5 R20), pick: W by 15 (79%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 44-28 A #440 Reading (1-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 17 (83%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #394 Cincinnati Mariemont (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #480 Cleves Taylor (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #656 Cincinnati Finneytown (2-3 D5 R20), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #433 Cincinnati Deer Park (5-0 D6 R24), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #99 Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 9 (70%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#47 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 8-2
22.58 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected #3 seed in R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-4%, 7W-23%, 8W-53%, 9W-20%

Playoff chance
98% now (bubble if 6-4), 55% home
99% with a win in next game, and 91% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 16.37 (13.26-21.32) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
7W: 19.32 (16.41-23.91) 97% in, 10% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
8W: 22.58 (19.72-27.32) 99% in, 62% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
9W: 26.96 (24.46-28.84) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
20% WWWWW 26.96 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) London 15%

Worst realistic scenario
6.5% WWWLL 18.86 pts, 95% in, 6% home (#6, range #3-out) Waverly 27%

Most likely other scenarios
43% WWWWL 22.42 pts, 99% in, 57% home (#4, range #1-out) Waverly 28%
12% LWWWL 19.22 pts, 97% in, 6% home (#6, range #3-out) Taft 24%
5.5% LWWWW 23.80 pts, 100% in, 82% home (#4, range #1-#7) Waverly 22%
3.7% WLWWL 20.55 pts, 99% in, 21% home (#5, range #3-out) Taft 28%
2.8% WWWLW 23.44 pts, 100% in, 72% home (#4, range #1-#7) Taft 22%
(8% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Mergenthaler MD (3-0 D1) over Cincinnati Taft (4-1 D4 R16)
Week 6: New Richmond (4-1 D3 R11) over Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11)
Week 8: New Richmond (4-1 D3 R11) over Mount Orab Western Brown (2-3 D2 R8)
Week 10: New Richmond (4-1 D3 R11) over Goshen (3-2 D3 R11)
Week 9: Minford (5-0 D5 R20) over Waverly (5-0 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
22% Waverly (5-0)
20% Cincinnati Taft (4-1)
12% London (5-0)
8% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-1)
7% Springfield Shawnee (4-1)

Championship probabilities
4.2% Region 16 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 112.7 (3-1, #195, D4 #20) 96% (need 6-4), 54% home, proj. #4
W3: 113.0 (2-1, #188, D4 #17) 90% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home, proj. #5
W2: 123.7 (2-0, #83, D4 #5) 99% (need 7-3), 92% home, proj. #2
W1: 119.3 (1-0, #121, D4 #11) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 66% home, proj. #5
W0: 114.3 (0-0, #198, D4 #19) 78% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home, proj. #5
Last year 119.9 (9-3)