Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#588 Circleville Logan Elm (1-8) 79.5

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#95 of 107 in Division IV
#21 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-10 A #539 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-6 D4 R15), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-20 H #550 Williamsport Westfall (4-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 9-22 H #542 Washington Court House Miami Trace (2-7 D3 R11), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-28 A #246 Amanda-Clearcreek (8-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-54 H #241 Ashville Teays Valley (6-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 28 (95%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 0-48 A #339 Columbus Hamilton Township (4-5 D3 R11), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 18-12 A #636 Circleville (0-9 D4 R15), pick: W by 2 (56%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 21-34 H #469 Lancaster Fairfield Union (3-6 D4 R15), pick: L by 9 (72%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 29-41 H #274 Columbus Grandview Heights (7-2 D6 R23), pick: L by 27 (95%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #268 Bloom-Carroll (7-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 28 (96%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#89 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
0.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-97%, 2W-3%

Playoff scenarios
3.0% W 4.45 pts, out
97% L 0.50 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 79.5 (1-8, #588, D4 #95) out
W8: 78.0 (1-7, #600, D4 #98) out
W7: 79.4 (1-6, #590, D4 #99) out
W6: 78.2 (0-6, #601, D4 #100) out
W5: 81.6 (0-5, #572, D4 #96) out
W4: 83.0 (0-4, #559, D4 #93) 1% , proj. out
W3: 82.8 (0-3, #568, D4 #96) 1% , proj. out
W2: 84.0 (0-2, #556, D4 #92) 1% , proj. out
W1: 87.5 (0-1, #526, D4 #89) 3% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 90.7 (0-0, #519, D4 #87) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 81.2 (1-9)