Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#116 Columbus Eastmoor Academy (8-1) 121.5

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#19 of 107 in Division III
#5 of 27 in Region 11
Eitel team page
Region 11 projections
Region 11 playoff probabilities
Region 11 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 45-14 A #460 Columbus Franklin Heights (1-8 D2 R8), pick: W by 7 (63%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 46-15 H #254 Columbus St Charles (4-5 D2 R7), pick: W by 10 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 24-55 H #76 Westerville Central (5-4 D1 R2), pick: L by 10 (70%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 47-6 H #403 Columbus South (6-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 22 (89%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 26-20 A #144 Columbus Walnut Ridge (8-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 2 (56%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 47-0 H #190 Columbus Marion-Franklin (6-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 61-16 A #307 Columbus Independence (5-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 19 (87%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 62-0 H #553 Columbus West (1-8 D2 R7), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 65-0 A #534 Columbus Briggs (2-7 D2 R8), pick: W by 30 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #634 Columbus Africentric Early College (0-9 D6 R23), pick: W by 37 (99%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#67 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 9-1
23.99 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #4 seed in R11 playoffs

Win probabilities:
9W-100%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 9-1), 99% home
100% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
9W: 23.99 (23.94-25.20) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #4 (#2-#5)

Playoff scenarios
100% W 23.99 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#4, range #2-#5) Hillsboro 93%
0.2% L 23.54 pts, 100% in, 88% home (#4, range #3-#5) Hillsboro 95%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Columbus Franklin Heights (1-8 D2 R8) over Newark (1-8 D1 R2)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
93% Hillsboro (8-1)
7% Thornville Sheridan (8-1)
1% Jackson (6-3)

Championship probabilities
7.0% Region 11 champ
0.8% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 121.5 (8-1, #116, D3 #19) in and 99% home, proj. #4
W8: 120.9 (7-1, #117, D3 #19) in and 95% home, proj. #4
W7: 122.3 (6-1, #105, D3 #16) in and 94% home, proj. #4
W6: 122.2 (5-1, #102, D3 #17) 99% (need 8-2), 77% home, proj. #4
W5: 120.2 (4-1, #116, D3 #20) 94% (bubble if 7-3), 54% home, proj. #6
W4: 119.7 (3-1, #125, D3 #22) 70% (need 8-2), 30% home, proj. #5
W3: 119.0 (2-1, #129, D3 #22) 63% (need 8-2), 27% home, proj. #6
W2: 119.0 (2-0, #133, D3 #24) 61% (need 8-2), 32% home, proj. #7
W1: 117.6 (1-0, #133, D3 #25) 48% (bubble if 7-3), 24% home, proj. #7
W0: 115.5 (0-0, #180, D3 #42) 31% (bubble if 7-3), 13% home, proj. out
Last year 118.0 (6-4)