Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#558 Eaton (0-5) 83.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#93 of 106 in Division IV
#23 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-40 H #362 Greenville (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-62 A #147 St Henry (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 23 (87%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 20-32 A #427 Oxford Talawanda (2-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 13-48 H #306 Brookville (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 11 (73%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 12-40 A #446 Dayton Oakwood (2-3 D4 R16), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #492 Monroe (0-5 D3 R12), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #113 Bellbrook (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 29 (96%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #246 Franklin (1-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #179 Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #653 New Lebanon Dixie (1-4 D6 R24), pick: W by 14 (80%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#37 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
0.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-13%, 1W-54%, 2W-29%, 3W-3%

Best realistic scenario
4.0% LLWLW 3.35 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
13% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
46% LLLLW 0.85 pts, out
22% WLLLW 1.85 pts, out
6.2% WLLLL 1.00 pts, out
(8% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 87.8 (0-4, #512, D4 #85) out
W3: 91.0 (0-3, #482, D4 #79) out
W2: 94.9 (0-2, #433, D4 #65) 1% , proj. out
W1: 94.6 (0-1, #446, D4 #67) 1% , proj. out
W0: 102.8 (0-0, #347, D4 #50) 8% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 103.3 (3-7)