Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#179 Germantown Valley View (3-2) 114.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#16 of 106 in Division IV
#4 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 50-26 A #342 Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11), pick: W by 10 (68%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 23-27 A #187 Fort Recovery (2-3 D6 R24), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 16-24 H #106 Middletown Madison (5-0 D5 R20), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 31-7 A #446 Dayton Oakwood (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 18 (83%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 21-0 H #492 Monroe (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 24 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #113 Bellbrook (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #246 Franklin (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 3 (58%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #448 West Milton Milton-Union (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #558 Eaton (0-5 D4 R16), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #306 Brookville (4-1 D5 R18), pick: W by 6 (64%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#25 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
17.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-11%, 6W-35%, 7W-39%, 8W-14%

Playoff chance
41% now (bubble if 7-3), 4% home
80% with a win in next game, and 17% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.65 (7.80-16.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.75 (10.35-19.50) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 17.15 (14.00-22.05) 61% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
8W: 21.50 (19.15-23.55) 99% in, 23% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
14% WWWWW 21.50 pts, 99% in, 23% home (#5, range #2-out) Indian Hill 22%

Worst realistic scenario
6.9% LLWWL 10.30 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
23% LWWWW 16.50 pts, 43% in (out, range #5-out) Wyoming 40%
16% LLWWW 13.70 pts, 4% in (out, range #6-out) Wyoming 56%
10% LWWWL 12.95 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
9.0% WLWWW 18.90 pts, 89% in, 3% home (#7, range #3-out) Clinton-Massie 28%
5.9% WWWWL 18.20 pts, 80% in, 1% home (#7, range #3-out) Clinton-Massie 29%
3.9% WLWWL 15.55 pts, 26% in (out, range #5-out) Clinton-Massie 48%
(13% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11) over Batavia (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 6: New Carlisle Tecumseh (3-2 D2 R8) over Springfield Shawnee (4-1 D4 R16)
Week 7: Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11) over Goshen (3-2 D3 R11)
Week 9: Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11) over Mount Orab Western Brown (2-3 D2 R8)
Week 7: Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23) over London (5-0 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
25% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-1)
24% Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0)
15% Cincinnati Taft (4-1)
15% Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1)
13% Waverly (5-0)

Championship probabilities
1.5% Region 16 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 113.5 (2-2, #187, D4 #16) 39% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W3: 114.9 (1-2, #173, D4 #16) 39% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 119.2 (1-1, #128, D4 #12) 84% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home, proj. #6
W1: 124.1 (1-0, #76, D4 #4) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home, proj. #4
W0: 122.8 (0-0, #92, D4 #6) 87% (need 6-4), 58% home, proj. #4
Last year 131.2 (11-1)