Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#257 Goshen (6-3) 108.7

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#54 of 107 in Division III
#13 of 27 in Region 11
Eitel team page
Region 11 projections
Region 11 playoff probabilities
Region 11 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 21-7 A #412 Cincinnati Archbishop McNicholas (1-8 D3 R12), pick: L by 10 (68%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 7-26 H #168 Hillsboro (8-1 D3 R11), pick: W by 16 (80%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-20 H #154 Morrow Little Miami (7-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 31-6 A #554 Norwood (2-7 D4 R16), pick: W by 16 (81%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 32-13 A #466 Blanchester (4-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 41-40 H #328 Mount Orab Western Brown (3-6 D2 R8), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 48-28 H #402 Wilmington (4-5 D3 R11), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 13 (W8) L 2-21 A #51 Clarksville Clinton-Massie (8-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 21-20 A #378 Batavia (6-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #265 New Richmond (6-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 2 (54%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#69 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
17.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R11 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-45%, 7W-55%

Playoff chance
3% now
6% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 17.50 (16.70-18.65) 6% in, 0% home, proj. out

Playoff scenarios
55% W 17.50 pts, 6% in (out, range #7-out) Bishop Hartley 89%
45% L 13.75 pts, out

Teams to root for
Week 10: Chillicothe (7-2 D2 R8) over Jackson (6-3 D3 R11)
Week 10: Nelsonville-York (4-5 D6 R23) over The Plains Athens (8-1 D3 R11)
Week 10: Columbus Bishop Watterson (4-5 D3 R11) over Columbus St Francis DeSales (5-4 D3 R11)
Week 10: Lewistown Indian Lake (3-6 D5 R18) over Bellefontaine (6-3 D3 R11)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
89% Columbus Bishop Hartley (7-2)
11% Granville (8-1)
1% Bellbrook (9-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 108.7 (6-3, #257, D3 #54) 3% , proj. out
W8: 109.0 (5-3, #248, D3 #55) 2% , proj. out
W7: 108.0 (5-2, #256, D3 #56) 5% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 106.5 (4-2, #278, D3 #57) 5% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 104.2 (3-2, #313, D3 #58) 4% , proj. out
W4: 103.6 (2-2, #321, D3 #62) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 100.9 (1-2, #353, D3 #71) 2% , proj. out
W2: 104.2 (1-1, #312, D3 #64) 10% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 115.6 (1-0, #150, D3 #28) 71% (bubble if 7-3), 40% home, proj. #3
W0: 109.2 (0-0, #257, D3 #61) 26% (need 7-3), 9% home, proj. out
Last year 118.2 (9-2)