Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#625 Greenfield McClain (1-4) 75.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#104 of 106 in Division IV
#25 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 15-31 A #485 Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23), pick: L by 8 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-34 H #321 Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 27 (91%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 21-39 H #449 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 19 (84%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 28-3 A #686 Sabina East Clinton (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-34 H #467 Troy Christian (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 14 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #474 Washington Court House Miami Trace (2-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #143 Chillicothe (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 35 (98%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #234 Washington Court House Washington (4-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #258 Jackson (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 26 (94%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #227 Hillsboro (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 30 (96%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#97 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 1-9
0.85 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-77%, 2W-21%, 3W-1%

Best realistic scenario
0.3% WLWLL 6.25 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
77% LLLLL 0.85 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% WLLLL 2.52 pts, out
3.1% LLLWL 3.98 pts, out
1.5% LLWLL 4.59 pts, out
1.4% LLLLW 4.99 pts, out
0.6% LWLLL 5.49 pts, out
0.5% WLLWL 5.69 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 77.3 (1-3, #613, D4 #103) out
W3: 72.5 (0-3, #651, D4 #105) out
W2: 72.7 (0-2, #646, D4 #105) out
W1: 70.6 (0-1, #667, D4 #106) out
W0: 76.4 (0-0, #646, D4 #106) 1% , proj. out
Last year 67.6 (0-10)